DAILY CLOSE: Two more make most of small issuance window
** Single currency bond supply ticked over on Tuesday as two issuers made funding plays in euros, getting in ahead of the looming risk events which include headline central bank verdicts, eurozone CPI data and US payrolls. Leading the way on the day was Lloyds Bank with a EUR1bn 6.25NC5.25 green senior HoldCo, with the lender joined by a EUR600m Jan 2030 line from HY name Crown European Holdings. For full details of Tuesday’s deals, that added to the previous session’s EUR3.25bn of single currency issuance, see the IGM DAILY EUR NICS & BOOKS
** In non-covered FIG, Lloyds Banking Group offered the second green senior Holdco euro trade in as many days via a new 6.25NC5.25 benchmark. The response was solid with a EUR2.2bn (EUR2.6bn peak) book driving a EUR1bn sized deal which landed 30bps inside m/s +125a IPTs, or flat to the wider end of the estimated fair value range. In secondary, Monday’s hit EUR750m no grow 7NC6 electric vehicle green sale by NatWest Group Plc was bid around 3bps inside its m/s +105 reoffer having priced inside where some saw fair value. Earnings remained a focus where Standard Chartered and Raiffeisen Bank International saw their shares rise after both banks delivered results that topped estimates. A further thirteen members of the Stoxx600 banks index will report before the end of the week. See IGM’s FIG SNAPSHOT
** The issuance window was closing quickly this week with headline events set to provide a distraction, and IG corporate issuers retreated back to the side-lines Tuesday following a mini-supply flurry at the start of the week. That after Vodafone, AstraZeneca and Edenred raised EUR2.5bn on combined demand of EUR7.05bn (average NIC 7.25bps), showing there are still enough market participants not on a beach somewhere to successfully execute a new bond offering. See the IGM CORP SNAPSHOT for a recap
** The latest CSPP update showed that the ECB's CSPP holdings fell by EUR347m to EUR303.01bn in the week to 26-Jul. The central bank also announced that holdings under its pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) increased by just EUR3m to put total holdings at EUR1,656.521bn
** The IGM European Weekly Cheat Sheet provides proprietary intelligence on Euro primary market trends using various key data points in an easily digestible Excel spreadsheet. This includes Euro new issue volumes, average new issue concessions and book cover ratios across asset classes, as well as other key credit proxies
Wednesday's supply prospects
HY:
** Stonegate Pub Company Financing 2019 plc mandated Barc (B&D), DB, NatWest as Joint Global Co-ordinators and Physical Bookrunners and BNPP, GS, Lloyds, Rabo as Joint Bookrunners for a GBP329.948m July 2029 NC2 (105.375, 102.6875, Par) Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes and a EUR403.679m July 2029 NC2 (105.375, Par) Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes dual-tranche issue, expected ratings B3/B+
** The IGM Roadshow Calendar is your one stop window on who, when and where. The calendar view provides an instant snapshot of which days are already earmarked for meetings in a convenient PDF format, with clickable links that take you directly to the known schedule
Tuesday's broader market developments
** EU stocks made tentative gains as markets absorbed a huge volley of corporate updates and the countdown continued to this week’s well-known risk events. Q2 growth data from France, Spain & eurozone topped forecasts but Germany disappointed (its economy unexpectedly shrank) while German annual CPI unexpectedly sped up. 10yr German yield dropped below the mid-June low at 2.342% (session low 2.333%). Oil lower again on demand/oversupply worries
** Stoxx600 +0.78% at best, gains led by Financials
** Govvies: Choppy session with yields set to end lower
** Data:
- FR Q2 P GDP QoQ beat at 0.3% (exp 0.2%, prev rev to 0.3%)
- SP Q2 GDP QoQ beat at 0.8% (exp 0.5%, prev 0.8%)
- SP Jul P CPI (EU harmonised) YoY below f/c at 2.8% (exp 3.2%, prev 3.6%)
- GE Q2 GDP QoQ missed at -0.1% (exp 0.1%, prev 0.2%)
- IT Q2 GDP QoQ matched f/c at 0.2% (exp 0.3%)
- EC Q2 A GDP QoQ above f/c at 0.3% (exp 0.2%, prev 0.3%)
- EC Jul Economic/Industrial/Services Confidence all weaker than prior at 95.8/-10.5/4.8 (prev 95.9/-10.2/6.2)
- GE Jul P CPI YoY above f/c at 2.3% (exp & prev 2.2%)
- US Jun JOLTS Job Openings above f/c at 8184k (exp 8000k, prev rev to 8230k)
- US Jul Conf Board Consumer Confidence above f/c at 100.3 (exp 99.7, prev rev to 97.8)
What to watch Wednesday – BoJ & FOMC, EC PPI, earnings and month-end
** Key Data: JN Jun Retail Sales (00:50), JN Jun P Industrial Production (00:50), CH Jul Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing PMIs (02:30), GE Jun Import Price Index (07:00), FR Jul P CPI (07:45), GE Jul Unemployment Change (08:55), EC Jul P CPI (10:00), IT Jul P CPI (10:00), US Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications (12:00), US Jul ADP Employment Change (13:15), US Jul MNI Chicago PMI (14:45) and US Jun Pending Home Sales (15:00)
** Key Events: BoJ (03:30) and FOMC (19:00) verdicts are due
** Auctions: GE to sell EUR3bn 2030 BOBLs (10:30)
** Earnings: 39 Stoxx600 & 55 S&P500 companies release results
All times BST
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