DAILY CLOSE: Week set up for a big undershoot
** IG names stayed away from the euro bond market as expected on Thursday, with a German holiday thinning out market participation. That meant that the weekly single currency total (ex-HY) remained at just EUR9.95bn, less than half the average guesstimate given by participants in our weekly poll. The main headlines this week have instead been generated by the HY market where a EUR4.705bn/ten tranche flurry has made this the busiest week of 2024 for the sector, with issuers getting deals away despite a volatile backdrop
** The SSA focus was on the dollar market Thursday as the measured weekly issuance pace continued. That as Nederlandse Financierings-Maatschappij voor Ontwikkelingslanden N.V (FMO) followed up on a mandate and IPTs announced Wednesday with its second USD500m no grow 5yr green bond of the year. This new Oct 2029 line landed at SOFR m/s +45 (from +47 area IPTs) on demand which finished at USD800m, much more measured than the USD2bn which the Jun 2029 green attracted earlier this year (SOFR m/s +38 reoffer)
** A second consecutive single currency blank left the weekly euro corporate (excluding HY) supply total at EUR2.15bn. That is not only well short of the lowest and average weekly estimates of EUR3bn and EUR5.5bn respectively, but makes it the smallest weekly total for the asset class since the w/e 16-Aug (EUR500m). Away from the single currency, and having printed a GBP400m 12yr line on Wednesday, Hammerson plc announced the maximum acceptance amount for an accompanying tender offer on Thursday
** In non-covered FIG, with euro supply off the menu Thursday and the week’s tally at just EUR1.55bn, a substantial undershoot to the EUR6.5bn weekly guess is a done deal. Aside from the obvious geopolitical concerns, looming earnings blackouts argue against expecting a big pick up anytime soon, a dynamic that is likely to provide a crutch for the secondary market as those with uninvested cash are forced to train their sights on existing paper
** IGM's Global Credit Snapshot for September was published Thursday and revealed some interesting takeaways in each of the major regions;
- Europe: With EUR149bn in issuance, it was the second busiest September on record! Lower NICs and strong cover ratios were the norm, although high-rated SSA issuers had to offer slightly higher NICs to get deals done
- APAC: The busiest month of the year so far, with USD37.137bn in issuance - the highest since January 2023. IG issuers paid NICs of around 3bp in September, the second highest of 2024
- US: A historic month with USD172.55bn in ex-SSA issuance, breaking the all-time September record. This made 3Q2024 the most active third quarter ever, with 486 deals totaling USD405.049bn
Friday's primary prospects
** At the time of writing there were no confirmed deals for Friday's business, and given the distraction of the US payroll data we could not see much in the way of opportunistic supply either
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Thursday's broader market developments
** Rising Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment Thursday, with European stocks falling along with Wall Street bourses. Geopolitical concerns continued to support oil prices with Brent as high as USD75.86 having hit a fresh multi-week peak of 76.14 on Wednesday. Ahead of Friday's key US payroll data, the usual weekly jobless figures were mixed, with continuing claims slightly lower than expected and initial claims a tad higher. Spain (beat) and Italy (miss) flash Composite/Services PMIs were mixed, whilst the final Eurozone figures were revised up from flash and the US lowered
** Stoxx600 fell as much as 1.05%, dragged lower by Tech and Materials
** Govvies: EGB yields continued to rise across the board on Thursday, whilst Gilts outperformed following dovish comments made by BoE's Bailey in the UK media. Markets comfortably absorb chunky auction supply from Spain and France
** Data:
- SP Sep HCOB Composite/Services PMIs beat at 56.3/57.0 (f/c 52.8/54.0, prev 53.5/54.6)
- IT Sep HCOB Composite/Services PMIs missed at 49.7/50.5 (f/c 50.2/51.1, prev 50.8/51.4)
- FR Sep F HCOB Composite/Services PMIs revised up to 48.6/49.6 (flash 47.4/48.3)
- GE Sep F HCOB Composite/Services PMIs mixed from prev at 47.5/50.6 (flash 47.2/50.6)
- EC Sep F HCOB Composite/Services PMIs revised up to 49.6/51.4 (flash 48.9/50.5)
- EC Au PPMI higher than exp at 0.6% MoM (f/c 0.5%, prev rev to 0.7% from 0.8%)
- US Weekly Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims mixed at 225k/1826k (f/c 221k/1830k, prev rev to 219k/1827k)
- US Sep F S&P Global Composite/Services PMIs revised down to 54.0/55.2 (flash 54.4/55.4)
- US Aug Factory Orders missed at -0.2% (f/c 0.1%, prev rev to 4.9% from 5.0%)
- US Aug F Durable Goods Orders unchanged at 0.0% as exp
- US Sep ISM Services Index higher than exp at 54.9 (f/c 51.7/prev 51.5)
What to watch Friday – US payrolls
** Key Data: FR Aug Industrial/Manufacturing Production (07:45), SP Aug Industrial Production (08:00), UK Sep S&P Global Construction PMI (09:30), IT Aug Retail Sales (11:00), US Sep Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30), US Sep Unemployment Rate (13:30) and US Sep Average Hourly Earnings (13:30)
** Key Events: Central bank speak comes from ECB’s Villeroy (07:30), Simkus, Kazaks, Muller (all 07:35), Centno, Escriva (both 08:00) and Guindos (11:00), as well as BoE’s Pill (08:55) and Fed’s Williams (14:00)
** Auctions: No major term auctions scheduled for Friday 4th Oct
** Holidays: Chinese Golden Week
All times BST
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