DAILY CLOSE: Weekly supply figure set to fall well short of expectations
** IG issuers stayed away from the primary bond market completely Thursday, with high-grade issuers so far this week having only printed EUR4.95bn in the single currency – well off the average EUR12.5bn estimate. HY paper was issued on the day though via Europi Property Group, Arrow Global and EIFFEL, as detailed in IGM’s DAILY EUR NICS & BOOKS. They put the overall weekly single currency total at EUR7.497bn, with another HY name in the form of Asmodee Group set to print a EUR940m 5NC2 FXD and 5NC1 FRN two-part secured on Friday
** IG corporate names were back to the sidelines on Thursday, leaving the weekly single currency haul for the sector at a paltry EUR1bn. That means we have so far only met the lowest estimate (EUR1bn) given by participants in our latest issuance poll, and are set to fall well-short of the EUR4bn average weekly guess given there is just a Friday session to go and an empty pipeline. Thursday’s blank comes after corporate activity was limited to a single EUR500m no grow 5yr green from Fingrid on Wednesday which propelled year-to-date euro corporate (ex-HY) ESG issuance beyond the EUR100bn (EUR100.1bn to be precise) for the first time ever. See the IGM CORP SNAPSHOT
Friday's primary prospects
HY:
** Asmodee Group AB (B2/B/B+) mandated BNP, JPM (B&D) as Joint Global Coordinators and Joint Physical Bookrunners, SEB, Societe Generale, Swedbank, Credit Agricole CIB as Joint Bookrunners and ING, Natwest Markets as Co-Managers for a EUR940m (Minimum tranche sizes EUR300m) two-part RegS/144A Senior Secured with 5NC2 FXD and 5NC1 FRN tranches. Talk is 6-6.25% and E+400 respectively
** Azerion Group N.V hired Pareto Securities as global coordinator and joint bookrunner and Arctic Securities as joint bookrunner for a EUR300m max tap of the company’s 10.029% Oct 2026 SSN issue (ISIN NO0013017657, EUR215m current O/S)
** Mohinder FinCo AB (publ) (u.c.n.f. Goldcup 101357 AB) mandated Arctic Securities and Nordea as Global Coordinators and Arctic Securities, Danske Bank, Nordea, SEB, and Swedbank as Joint Bookrunners to explore the possibility of issuing senior secured floating rate bonds with an expected initial issue size of EUR175m and a framework of EUR350m, subject to prevailing market conditions
** The IGM Roadshow Calendar is your one stop window on who, when and where. The calendar view provides an instant snapshot of which days are already earmarked for meetings in a convenient PDF format, with clickable links that take you directly to the known schedule
Thursday's broader market developments
** European stocks make solid gains Thursday amid an advance in Tech, on hopes that US tariffs on China tech sales may not be as strong as first feared. On the data front German prelim CPI figures showed the national headline at 2.2% YoY, up 20bp on Oct, but 10bp lower than consensus. HICP was 2.4% YoY, the same as previous and -20bp versus the market estimate. That contrasted with Spain where the national CPI number rose more than expected on an annual basis in Nov to 2.4% (f/c 2.3%, prev 1.8%). US markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. ECB's Villeroy spoke, indicating that at the following meetings, rate cuts shouldn't be ruled out. Also, for the 12-Dec GC, there is every reason to cut, but optionality should remain open as to size (i.e. 25 or 50bp)
** Stoxx600 jumped as much as 0.79% led by a surge in Tech stocks (up 1.2% at time of writing)
** Govvies: EGB yields lower across the board (accelerated in wake of Villeroy comments), with OATs slightly outperforming Bunds after a run of underperformance. This sent the 10yr OAT yield under 3% for the first time since 29-Oct. Despite that, quotes show that the 10yr French yield trades virtually flat to the Greek equivalent. See OATS outperform! But political risk remains in abundance
** Data:
- SP Nov P CPI higher than exp at 2.4% YoY (f/c 2.3%, prev 1.8%)
- IT Nov Consumer/Manufacturing Confidence mixed at 96.6/86.5 (f/c 97.4/85.0, prev 97.4/85.8)
- EC Oct M3 Money Supply rose as exp to 3.4% (prev 3.2%)
- EC Nov Economic/Industrial/Services Confidence mixed at 95.8/-11.1/5.3 (f/c 95.2/-13.0/6.5, prev rev to 95.7/-12.6/6.8)
- GE Nov P CPI rose less that exp at 2.2% YoY (f/c 2.3%, prev 2.0%), EU Harmonized number unchanged at 2.4% (prev 2.4%, f/c 2.6%)
What to watch Friday – Eurozone CPI
** Key Data: JN Oct Housing Starts (05:00), JN Nov Consumer Confidence Index (05:00), GE Oct Import Price Index (07:00), GE Oct Retail Sales (07:00), FR Oct Consumer Spending (07:45), FR Nov P CPI (07:45), FR Q3 F GDP (07:45), SP Oct Retail Sales (08:00), GE Nov Unemployment Rate (08:55), ECB Oct 1yr/3yr CPI Expectations (09:00), UK Oct Mortgage Approvals (09:30), IT Nov P CPI (10:00) and EC Nov P CPI (10:00)
** Key Events: BoE’s financial stability review (10:30). ECB’s Guindos (11:30) & Nagel (13:00) speak
** Auctions: No major term auctions scheduled for Friday 29th Nov
All times GMT
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