European FX Open - Any Lagarde guidance on September?

GBP/USD maintains its 1.30-plus status albeit off Wednesday's new 1.3044 2024 highs in the wake of the slightly firmer than forecast UK CPI report for June (0.1% m/m and 2.0% y/y, same as last).

Moving swiftly on and at the top of the hour, it's AWE and the employment change. Earnings are seen softer in May, at 5.7% y/y, and another sign cost pressure in the economy is softening.

Is an August BOE rate cut still a possibility?

That leads us to the highlight of the day and the widely expected hold from ECB policymakers today. The big question is whether the Bank's president Lagarde will hint at a reduction in September.

On the US front, initial claims will garner some interest (230k vs 222k last) amid evidence of a slowdown in the labour market.

Last night, the Beige Book survey of regional business contacts noted the US economy grew at a slight pace heading into Q3, with a number of regions noting flat or declining activity.

Also overnight, Australia added more than twice the number of jobs economists expected in June at 50.2k, highlighting the resilience of its employment sector in the face of elevated interest rates and the possibility of even more RBA tightening ahead.

Fed's Goolsbee is a scheduled speaker in the European afternoon followed by more officials tonight. Overnight, ex-Fed official Kaplan noted the central bank is likely to reduce interest rates in September in light of recent progress on inflation, but the move isn't likely to mark the beginning of a full-fledged rate-cut cycle.

And, ex-BOJ Hayakawa stated the Bank is unlikely to raise interest rates this month and will instead cut its bond buying a little more than expected to avoid any fueling of YEN weakness.

Earlier, Bbg reported President Xi Jinping will unveil his long-term vision for China s economy as he wraps up the twice-a-decade Third Plenum on reform, days after a surprising 4.7% y/y GDP miss piled pressure on Beijing to act urgently to reinvigorate domestic demand.

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