European FX Open - At the top of the hour

It largely happens at the top of the hour!

Then, Norway and final German CPI for August are scheduled.

For the latter, headline and core m/m reads are expected to come in deep in negative territory, with y/y estimates at 2.8% and 2.9% respectively.

Norway and NOK remain in that unusual position of having one of the perceived least dovish central bank outlooks in G10, but also an underperforming currency. In fact, the Norges Bank chief has warned in the last month the country’s politicians risk endangering the credibility of monetary policy as they seek new ways to address Krone weakness.

Also, we get a barrage of Swedish data for July in the form of the latest GDP indicator, household consumption and industrial orders.

And in the UK, AWE earnings and the employment change for July are due. Softer reads are again expected in the former, while a more positive 123k number is seen in the latter. Earnings will likely be impacted by April’s strong print, which was distorted by the near-10% increase in the National Living Wage, dropping out of the three-month measure. The labour market is widely viewed as cooling, but it's worth keeping in mind the supportive factors to come such as the new government agreeing to some hefty wage rises in the public sector.

In the second half, the US NFIB small business optimism leads, forecast to ease to 93.6 in August vs 93.7 the month previous.

Ahead, the USD continues to trade well off its post-NFPs lows, enjoying overnight upside vs the YEN, in particular.

In contrast to latest equivalent reports out of NZ, overnight, Australian consumer and business confidence surveys were disappointing. Westpac's consumer confidence dropped -0.5% in September, while NAB's business confidence came in at -4, highlighting increasing concern about the job market as the economy labors under highinterest rates.

There was some bright news out of China, with the August trade surplus improving to Usd 91.0bln. Exports beat expectations at 8.7% y/y (as imports fell away at 0.5% y/y), providing a rare boost for an economy weighed down by deflationary pressures, though the data is likely to keep tensions with trade partners high.

Also today, BBC News reports UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has urged Labour MPs to back her plan to cut winter fuel payments.

More than nine million pensioners will no longer be eligible for up to Gbp 300 this winter after Ms Reeves announced the introduction of means-testing following Labour's election win. There are concerns dozens of Labour MPs could abstain in a vote on the policy in Parliament today, amid worry pensioners on modest incomes may miss out this winter.

In Japan, ex-government spokesman Katsunobu Kato declared his candidacy to become Japan’s next leader of the ruling LDP with a pledge to try and double individual incomes.

And, of course, tonight is the eagerly awaited televised debate between US presidential candidates Trump and Harris who are near neck and neck in latest polls.

Elsewhere, all US stock futures stand in the red at the time of writing, led by the -0.4% NASDAQ.

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