European FX Open - France's no-confidence vote

US stock futures all stand in the green at the time of writing, led by the +0.3% NASDAQ, as French president Macron urged French lawmakers to reject a no-confidence vote later today and vowed not to resign before his term ends.

EUR/USD holds above 1.0500 for now as The Times writes President Macron is already casting around for a new centre-right figure to replace Michel Barnier as PM, whose government is set to be toppled this week. The administration’s collapse would leave France facing a political crisis unlike anything it has experienced in six decades. Meanwhile, BBC News leads with Barnier saying it is "possible" he could survive a no-confidence vote in his minority government.

The KRW steadied overnight as the BOK pledged Wednesday to take a variety of steps to keep financial markets stable after the South Korean president declared and hours later rescinded martial law. The opposition party has sought to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol amid press reports that cabinet members have offered to resign.

And, USD/CNH peaks for now at Tuesday's 7.3148 new 2024 high as the PBOC set its reference rate at 7.1934, a massive 902 pips higher than the Bbg average estimate and widest since August.

AUD/USD, meanwhile, starts the day softer after the overnight Australia Q3 GDP miss of 0.3% q/q and 0.8% y/y vs 0.5% and 1.1% forecasts.

Otherwise, the USD is fairly mixed ahead of a clutch of US releases today and after Fed's Daly remarked an interest rate cut this month isn’t certain but remains on the table for policymakers.

The ADP employment change is seen at 150k in November vs 233k last. And, the ISM services index is expected to come in at 55.7 in November vs 56.0 last. Post-election, the boost to consumer and business sentiment could have impacted positively on services, but we could see relative labour market softness from the hospitality and education sectors.

Also on the US front, this evening's latest Fed Beige Book will garner some attention, with a post-Trump election win surge expected in consumer and business sentiment.

This morning, we get the final batch of services and composite PMIs for November out of leading European nations as well as the OECD's economic outlook.

Minutes from November's -50BPs Riksbank easing are also due as well as speeches from big hitters ECB's Lagarde and BOE's Bailey as well as the Fed Chair Powell tonight.

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