European FX Open - Liberation Day!?

The USD opens mixed to firmer, while all US stock futures sit light in the red as we wait on Trump tariffs announcements.

Latest from Bbg centres on Trump’s team said to still be hashing out its long-awaited reciprocal tariff announcement due at 4pm. A tiered system with a set of flat rates for countries as well as a more customized plan are among options under consideration. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers the tariffs will be the highest they will go and countries can then take steps to bring them down (CNBC).

Recall a Washington Post report yesterday gained some traction, which indicated White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on at least most imports to the US, as President Donald Trump pushes for the most aggressive overhaul of the global economic system in decades.

Meanwhile, Japan's Finance Minister Kato stated the government will continue to strongly urge the US to exempt Japan from tariff measures, while assessing the details and potential impact on the country.

And, a group of 50 Republican and Democratic senators introduced a sanctions package for Russia and countries that buy its oil if Putin refuses to engage in good-faith ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine or breaches an eventual agreement. Bbg writes the sanctions would include a 500% tariff on imports from countries that buy Russian oil, and prohibit US citizens from buying Russian sovereign debt, among other restrictions.

And, Fed's Goolsbee warned of the negative consequences of any slowdown in consumer spending or business investment due to tariff-related uncertainty.

Tariff related uncertainty to stay front and centre as we wait on next leaks, speculation, reveals and confirmation.

All things US the focus and the possible end of the era of US exceptionalism continues with factory Orders (0.5% m/m vs 1.7%) and the pre-NFPs ADP employment change (120k vs 77k) data wise.

There is also multi-ECB scheduled from doves and hawks as we continue to debate the chances of an April pause. According to OIS markets pricing, it looks unlikely.

Also on the news front, China Vice Finance Minister Liao Min said Beijing is willing to strengthen economic and financial cooperation with the EU.

And, far-right Marine Le Pen’s hopes of keeping her 2027 French presidency bid alive were boosted after the Paris court of appeals said it should be able to deliver a ruling on her embezzlement conviction by mid-2026, earlier than expected.

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