European FX Open - Ranges holding for now

Pre-FOMC verdict, US data watch continues today with relatively big ones retail sales and IP.

After yesterday's huge beat in Empire manufacturing (11.5 vs a -4.0 forecast), sales are expected to fall -0.2% m/m in August vs 1.0% the month previous, with IP seen coming in at 0.2% m/m vs -0.6% over the same periods.

The DXY USD Index is very tentatively holding above 100.50 pre-data as the big question remains over whether the Fed moves by -25BPs or -50BPs tomorrow, with market uncertainty over the move seen at/near historic highs in a perceived classic 'coin toss'.

And, can we see at least mini range breaks ahead, with key levels coming in at the likes of 139.58 and 1.1202 in USD/YEN and EUR/USD? We suspect it could take some big data surprises and/or central bank leaks to seriously threaten such levels ahead of the US central bank decision.

EUR/USD is little changed from Monday's closing prices ahead of the morning's main release the German ZEW for September, with the business survey seen slowing across the expectations and current situation components.

Also today, in the second half, there is Canada CPI for August, which likely cooled from 2.5% y/y the previous month and giving credence to the BOC's decision to again lower interest rates by another -25BPs earlier in the month.

ECB's Simkus is a scheduled speaker.

Elsewhere, the US stock futures are about flat at the time of writing even after Goldman Sachs said it’s time to buy the dip in AI.

Meanwhile, Bbg reports French President Emmanuel Macron is in talks with the European Commission to carve out a new, more powerful position for the country that would see his nominee overseeing all of the bloc’s efforts to boost its competitiveness.

And, the FT writes the US and Japan are close to a deal to curb chip technology exports to China, with the White House aiming to unveil new controls before November's presidential election.

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