European FX Close - Month end related buying lifts the Dollar

After some early weakness, the Dollar drew an increasing amount of demand, with the DXY rebounding from 103.752 up to 104.376. It seems that the expected month and quarter-end buying of the US unit overshadowed other more negative influences.

US data was mixed again, with the Chicago PMI rising to 47.6 in March from the 45.5 level in February, with the reading coming in above the 45.0 consensus forecast. But the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity report also for March tumbled to minus 16.3, below the minus 5.0 expected.

Focus remains very much on the April 2nd tariff deadline, with Nick Timiraos, noted Fed watcher from the WSJ, writing that Trump officials still are not sure what they’re doing with tariffs this week. He adds that in recent days, advisers have considered imposing global tariffs of up to 20% that would hit virtually all U.S. trading partners. Timiraos declards that "whatever the final plan, the president wants the policy to be “big and simple.” That likely means the final action will be broader than earlier plans to prioritize levying tariffs on the U.S.’s biggest trading partners, about 15% of the world’s nations."

The Euro garnered some fleeting support from the German state and Italian CPI updates for March, as their firm readings contradicted the soft updates from France and Spain on Friday, but Eur/Usd's gains to 1.0849 were quickly unwound.

The ECB President Lagarde declared that Trump's trade measures will hurt global growth and that keeping inflation in check is a constant battle. Lagarde added that the Trump tariffs are a chance for Europe to display its independence. Meanwhile, the ECB's Panetta stated that monetary policy needs to consider the weak economy and that growing uncertainty requires prudence on rate cuts. Panetta also insisted that the fight against inflation is not over.

In other news, French far-right leader Marie Le Pen was barred from running for public office for five years, by a criminal court in Paris, ruling out a 2027 Presidential run. Le Pen and her National Rally party were found guilty of diverting millions of Euros in EU funds to finance activities related to their domestic agenda.