LatAm Brief: Brazil's Haddad sees more than 3% GDP growth in 2024

12 SEPT 11:37GMT: The DXY is steady along the 101.700 handle after yday data shows that US CPI met the f/c and eased to 2.5% y/y from 2.9% y/y prior and by 0.2% m/m. Core CPI also met the f/c and steadied from prior levels of 3.2% y/y, but came in higher than expected at 0.3% m/m from 0.2% m/m prior (f/c 0.2% m/m) - with jumbo Fed rate cut bets being reduced (more here). The main event ahead is the ECB interest rate decision (12.15GMT) where the deposit facility rate is f/c to be cut 25bps to 3.5%, the Main Refi rate by 0.6% to 3.65% & Marginal Lending Facility also by 0.6% to 3.9%. US PPI metrics are seen mixed & Initial Jobless Claims predicted to be unchanged at 227k. UST yields have been widening with the 10yr yield rising to a session high of 3.68%, USD/LatAm may be firmer at the LatAm open on Thursday. USD/MXN fell to a 1-wk low of 19.7179 as Mexico's judicial overhaul passes its final test, being approved by the nation's congress, allowing Pres ALMO to sign the bill into law. Still, S&P Ratings expressed that they have no preference if judges should be elected or not. Instead they'll be watching to see if the judicial overhaul will hurt investments or fiscal accounts, as a failure to cut the deficit and a higher debt to GDP ratio could lead to negative rate action (via Bbg). USD/CLP may be firmer at the open. Strengthening studies (note the '75% bullish' rating on this week's Sentiment Matrix) and the recent Golden Cross (50/200DMAs) should underpin a return to 966.19. USD/BRL may also be firmer at the open after late yday FinMin Haddad expressed that the govt is worried that a resurgence in extreme weather will spur inflation as the BCB is expected to lift rates from next week. Similarly, BofA analyst expressed that a severe heat wave could worsen droughts in Brazil, which could then in turn take a toll on inflation. Nevertheless, Haddad believes that they will achieve a balanced budget, while seeing the economy grow more than 3% in 2024 (via Bbg). Still to come in LatAm is Brazil's Retail sales (12GMT).

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