[MIDDAY UPDATE:] “If That Test is Met...“
- There were no deals announced yesterday
- 7 borrowers announced deals this morning:
- Enterprise Products Operating: 2-pt long (10yr & 30yr)
- Crown Castle: 2-pt (5yr & 10yr)
- Truist: 8nc7 F-T-F
- Public Service E&G: 2-pt (10yr & 30yr)
- PACCAR: 3yr notes
- Fiserve: 2-pt (long 5yr & 10yr)
- NY State E&G: $525 10yr "green" notes
- One SSA deal was also announced: Republic of Peru 2-pt(L10yr & 30yr)
- The three major indices are mixed with the Dow down 153pts (-0.21%), the S&P up (+0.22%) and Nasdaq up (+0.38%)
- Treasury yields are lower, with the benchmark 10yr note now yielding 3.98% (-5bps), while the long bond is yielding 4.268%, (-4bp), and the 2yr note yielding 4.198% (-6bp)
- Corporate spreads widened 1bp with the average high grade bond trading 97bp over comparable Treasuries
- Traders in the Fed Funds future market are putting the odds of a 25bp rate cut in September at 84.5% down from 88.2% last week while a 50bp cut is at 15.5% vs. 11.5% last week.
- Initial Jobless Claims came in at 249k, higher than the estimated 236k while Continuing Claims were 1877k vs 1855k expected
- Manufacturing PMI came in as expected at 49.6
- ISM Manufacturing disappointed at 46.8 vs estimates of 48.8
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2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 07/29 WEEK, JULY & 2024 ESTIMATES
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| 7/29 WK | LO EST | AVE EST | HI EST | ACTUAL | JUL | LO EST | AVE EST | HI EST | ACTUAL | 2024 | LO EST | AVE EST | HI EST | ACTUAL |
| EX-SSA | $27.0B | $35.0B | $22,300 | EX-SSA | $125,504 | EX-SSA | $1.100B | $1.275B | $1.350B | $1,008,963 | ||||
| OVERALL | $30.0B | $35.0B | $40.0B | $22,300 | OVERALL | $149,304 | OVERALL | $1.350B | $1.420B | $1.550B | $1,275,113 |
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2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 2023 VS 2024 COMPARISON
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| 31-Jul | 07/01 WK | 07/08 WK | 07/15 WK | 07/22 WK | 07/29 WK | MTD | 23 MTD (AUG) | 24 YTD | 23 YTD | CHNG |
| IND | 0 | 6000 | 2750 | 21454 | 7000 | 0 | 6250 | 288979 | 294220 | -2% |
| UTL | 0 | 0 | 600 | 0 | 1900 | 0 | 0 | 81100 | 75690 | 7% |
| FIG | 0 | 2750 | 36850 | 8250 | 11550 | 0 | 6600 | 345550 | 228000 | 52% |
| Y(I) | 350 | 1000 | 3000 | 0 | 350 | 0 | 0 | 81534 | 48050 | 70% |
| Y(F) | 5000 | 8500 | 4900 | 1300 | 1500 | 0 | 0 | 196170 | 162500 | 21% |
| Y(U) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15630 | 11000 | 42% |
| SSA | 7500 | 10000 | 3700 | 2600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 266150 | 225700 | 18% |
| EX-SSA | 5350 | 18250 | 48100 | 31504 | 22300 | 0 | 12850 | 1008963 | 819460 | 23.1% |
| OVERALL | 12850 | 28250 | 51800 | 34104 | 22300 | 0 | 12850 | 1275113 | 1045160 | 22.0% |
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