[MIDDAY UPDATE:] Monday Meltdown
- There were no deals announced today as at least 10 borrowers stood down in light of current market conditions, making it the 14th zero day of the year
- The three major indices are all much lower with the Dow down 873pts (-2.20%), the S&P down (-2.55%) and Nasdaq down (-3.13%)
- Treasury yields are lower, with the benchmark 10yr note now yielding 3.743% (-5bps), while the long bond is yielding 4.052%, (-5bp), and the 2yr note yielding 3.826% (-6bp)
- Corporate spreads widened 6bps with the average high grade bond trading 106bp over comparable Treasuries
- Traders in the Fed Funds future market are putting the odds of a 50bp rate cut in September at 90% up from 11.4% last week while a 75bp cut is now in the cards at 10%
- US Services PMI came in at 55.0 in July vs expectations of 56.0
- The ISM Service Index came in at 51.4 in July vs expectations of 51.0
.
2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 08/05 WEEK, AUGUST & 2024 ESTIMATES
.
| 08/05 WK | LO EST | AVE EST | HI EST | ACTUAL | AUG | LO EST | AVE EST | HI EST | ACTUAL | 2024 | LO EST | AVE EST | HI EST | ACTUAL |
| EX-SSA | $25.0B | $37.5B | $50.0B | $0 | EX-SSA | $80.0B | $90.0B | $110.0B | $8,825 | EX-SSA | $1.100B | $1.275B | $1.350B | $1,017,788 |
| OVERALL | $30.0B | $40.0B | $60.0B | $0 | OVERALL | $90.0B | $100.0B | $115.0B | $11,825 | OVERALL | $1.350B | $1.420B | $1.550B | $1,286,938 |
.
2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 2023 VS 2024 COMPARISON
.
| 2-Aug | 07/01 WK | 07/08 WK | 07/15 WK | 07/22 WK | 07/29 WK | MTD | 23 MTD | 24 YTD | 23 YTD | CHNG |
| IND | 0 | 6000 | 2750 | 21454 | 11250 | 4250 | 8200 | 293229 | 295870 | -1% |
| UTL | 0 | 0 | 600 | 0 | 3525 | 1625 | 0 | 82725 | 75690 | 9% |
| FIG | 0 | 2750 | 36850 | 8250 | 14500 | 2950 | 7200 | 348500 | 228900 | 52% |
| Y(I) | 350 | 1000 | 3000 | 0 | 350 | 0 | 0 | 81534 | 48050 | 70% |
| Y(F) | 5000 | 8500 | 4900 | 1300 | 1500 | 0 | 0 | 196170 | 162500 | 21% |
| Y(U) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15630 | 11000 | 42% |
| SSA | 7500 | 10000 | 3700 | 2600 | 3000 | 3000 | 0 | 269150 | 225700 | 19% |
| EX-SSA | 5350 | 18250 | 48100 | 31504 | 31125 | 8825 | 15400 | 1017788 | 822010 | 23.8% |
| OVERALL | 12850 | 28250 | 51800 | 34104 | 34125 | 11825 | 15400 | 1286938 | 1047710 | 22.8% |
.
2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - RECENT MANDATES
.
| ANNOUNCED | ISSUER | RATINGS | MGRS | CALL | DEAL |
| 1-Aug | DR HORTON | BOA/MIZ/WFS | 1-Aug | ||
| 1-Aug | BORGWARNER | BAA1/BBB | BOA/C/WFS | 2-Aug | SR UNSECURED DEAL |
| 2-Aug | QUANTA SERVICES | BAA3/BBB- | BOA/JPM/PNC/TSI/WFS | 5-Aug |
.
---- Subscribe to read more ----
To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.