[MIDDAY UPDATE:] One and Done
- There was one deal, another Yankee, announced this morning: a senior secured guaranteed 5yr note offering from SMRC Automotive Holdings Netherlands BV
- Yesterday´s deals raised $5bln: ANZ New Zealand Bank's $500m 10nc5 subordinated note offering and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group's $4.5bln 5-pt offering of 5yr fixed and floating rate notes, 7yr and 10yr senior unsecured notes, and 20yr subordinated Tier 2 notes
- The three major indices opened marginally higher this morning and close early at 1:00pm for the 4th of July Holiday
- Treasury yields are substantially lower, with the benchmark 10yr note now yielding 4.35% (-8bp), while the long bond is yielding 4.63%, 8bp lower, and the 2yr note yielding 4.68%, 6bp lower.
- Corporate spreads tightened again overnight to where the average high grade bond is now trading 93bp over comparable Treasuries
- MBA Mortgage applications came at -2.6% vs 0.8% prior
- ADP said US firms added 150k jobs in June, below the estimate of 165k
- Weekly initial jobless claims (238k vs 235k estimate) rose 4k from the previous week, while continuing claims rose from a revised 1832k to 1858k, slightly higher than expectations (1840k).
- The ISM services index dropped to 48.8 vs 52.7 expected
- Factory orders retracted -0.5% vs 0.2% expected while durable goods orders rose 0.1% as expected.
- Traders in the Fed Funds future market are putting the odds of a rate cut in September at 59.9%, up from 56.3% last week.
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2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 07/01 WEEK, JULY & 2024 ESTIMATES
| 07/01 WK | LO EST | AVE EST | HI EST | ACTUAL | JUN | LO EST | AVE EST | HI EST | ACTUAL | 2024 | LO EST | AVE EST | HI EST | ACTUAL |
| EX-SSA | $6.5B | $15.0B | $5,000 | EX-SSA | $80.0B | $85.0B | $95.0B | $5,000 | EX-SSA | $1.100B | $1.275B | $1.350B | $888,359 | |
| OVERALL | $15.0B | $12,500 | OVERALL | $90.0B | $100.0B | $110.0B | $12,500 | OVERALL | $1.350B | $1.420B | $1.550B | $1,138,20 |
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2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - RECENT MANDATES
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| ANNOUNCED | ISSUER | RATINGS | MGRS | CALL | DEAL |
| 30-May | REC LIMITED | BAA3/BBB- | BARC/DBS/HSBC/MIZ/MUFG/SCB | 3-Jun | 144A REG S DEAL |
| 25-Jun | NONGHYUP BANK | AA3/A+ | BOA/C/CA/HSBC/MUFG/SCB | 1-Jul | 144A REG S DEAL |
| 25-Jun | KRATON CORP | CA/C/JPM/KDB/MIZ/SCB | 27-Jun | 144A REG S 3YR DEAL | |
| 28-Jun | WOORI BANK | A1/A+ | BOA/C/HSBC/MUFG/SG/WFS | 4-Jul | 144A REG S TIER I SUB S |
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2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 07/03 CALENDAR
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| AMT | ISSUER | MAT | RATINGS | MGR | TALK |
| TBA | MSSIN | 29 | BAA3/NR | HSBC | +140 |
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2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 07/02 PRICINGS
ISSUE | RATINGS | MGRS | AMT | CALL | CPN | MAT | SPRD | TYPE | |
| 07/02 | EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK | AAA/AAA | BARC/C/MS | 4000 | NC | 4.375 | 7YR | +11.03 | SU |
| 07/02 | ANZ BANK NEW ZEALAND | A3/A | ANZ/BOA/C/RBC | 500 | NC5 | 5.898 | 10YR | +150 | YF |
| 07/02 | SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GRP | A1/A- | GS/JEFF/JPM/SMBC | 500 | NC | SOFR+117 | 5YR | FRN | YF |
| 07/02 | SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GRP | A1/A- | GS/JEFF/JPM/SMBC | 750 | NC | 5.316 | 5YR | +93 | YF |
| 07/02 | SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GRP | A1/A- | GS/JEFF/JPM/SMBC | 900 | NC | 5.424 | 7YR | +103 | YF |
| 07/02 | SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GRP | A1/A- | GS/JEFF/JPM/SMBC | 1350 | NC | 5.558 | 10YR | +113 | YF |
| 07/02 | SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GRP | A2/BBB+ | BOA/C/GS/SMBC | 1000 | NC | 5.836 | 20YR | +113 | YF |
| 2/6 | 5000 | 3/7 | 9000 | . |