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* EU stocks are currently on course for a potential fifth straight day of losses. Comes as global IT outages add to the current list of reasons for caution centred on geopolitical and trade-related worries which have been weighing on markets over the course of the week. US index futures also point to further losses at today's Wall Street open with markets facing a nervous run into the weekend. UK retail sales were much weaker than expected in June (weather, election uncertainty & payback for a strong May) while UK borrowing was higher than forecast * Stoxx600 -0.84% at worst, losses led by Materials. Bears keeping an eye on a key 2nd July low at 508.08 (today's low at 509.70) * Govvies: EGBs lacking a clear/overall direction today with gilts underperforming as higher-than-expected borrowing stokes supply concerns * Primary: Issuers are staying away Friday to leave the weekly single currency haul at EUR16.15bn, still less than half the previous week's final EUR33.87bn total * Ahead: Another 7 S&P500 firms report earnings and two Fed officials speak in a data-free session. S&P futures -0.2% and Nasdaq futures -0.3% Live deals/updates - No updates on the morning of Friday 19th July Key economic data / events so far - UK Jul GfK Consumer Confidence missed at -13 (exp -12, prev -14) - UK Jun Retail Sales MoM missed at -1.2% (exp -0.6%, prev 2.9%) - UK Jun PSNB ex-Banking Groups above f/c at 13.2bn (exp 11.2bn, prev rev up to 16.5bn) - GE Jun PPI YoY matched f/c at -1.6% (prev -2.2%) Auctions - No major term auctions scheduled for Friday 19th July Ahead - 7 S&P500 companies release results - Fed's Williams (15:40) & Bostic (18:00) All times BST ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free demo of the service today.

Six ex-SSA borrowers tapped the high grade primary market yesterday occidently on purpose to get in before the widely expected jumbo multi-tranche offering from Occidental Petroleum that will no doubt command the attention of investors. For the same reason, there were no deals announced overnight. But that doesn t mean OXY will be the only game in town, though we haven t heard of any other potential borrowers vying for a piece of the action today. And Citigroup is one of them, just announcing a $1,000 par perpnc10 preferred stock offering. Occidental held investor calls yesterday, ahead of a deal to help fund its $12bln cash and stock acquisition of Permian producer CrownRock. It was announced at the time of the acquisition (December 2023) that OXY would issue $9.1bln in debt prior to closing the deal. If that turns out to be the case, it will make the deal the fifth largest ex-SSA, domestic, industrial/corporate and M&A-related issue of the year. Until we get the official announcement, which I thought would come while I was writing this piece, those six borrowers raised $8.254bln yesterday, bringing ex-SSA issuance for the month of July to $79.954bln, enough to match, well close enough for government work, the lowest monthly estimate of $80bln. At the same time, overall (SSA-inclusive) issuance has already topped the average monthly estimate. Coming into the month, on average, the Street was looking for $100bln in overall issuance, and with the addition of $21.2bln in SSA issuance, overall issuance stands at $101.154bln. Year-to-date, ex-SSA issuance ($963.413bln) is running at a 24% faster clip than last year at this time, while overall issuance ($1.226.963bln) is running ahead of last year by 22.4%. As a matter of fact, with five months remaining in the year, overall issuance is already closing in on the lowest annual estimate of $1.35trln. American Express Co led the way yesterday with a $3.4bln 3-pt offering of fixed-to-floating and floating rate notes. AXP was joined by United Airlines $1.354bln 2-pt EETC offering, Kinder Morgan s $125bln 2-pt offering of 5s and 30s, Nationwide Building Society s $1bln 5yr senior preferred deal, Ally Financial s $750m 11nc10 fixed-to-floating rate note offering and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power s (though some consider it an SSA) $500m 5yr note deal. Judging by the reception given to yesterday's deals, it appears investors are still flush with cash to put to work and didn t hold back waiting for today s expected sizeable offer. On average, yesterday's deals contracted 26.7bp from IPT/PX, while attracting $27bln (3.26x covered) in investor interest, and pricing with an average NIC of 2.17bp. As for the market conditions OXY could be facing, futures are indicating a rather benign open for the three major indices as investors digest the latest round of earnings. General Motors reported quarterly earnings that beat on both the top ($3.06 vs $2.75) and bottom ($47.97bln vs $45.46bln) lines, as did Coca-Cola ($0.84 vs $0.81 and $12.36bln vs $11.76bln) who also raised its full-year outlook. Both were trading higher in pre-market action, +4% and +1%, respectively. But doesn t seem to have had much of an impact on the Dow, which appears headed for a modest gain at the open, while S&P500 and the Nasdaq futures are indicating fractionally gains. This after the three major averages staged a bit of a comeback after suffering through their worst week in two months. The Dow closed 128 points higher despite a 6% decline in the share price of Verizon after reporting mixed Q2 earnings, while the S&P500 closed 1.08% higher despite the second day of double digit (12.5%) losses in the shares of CrowdStrike in the aftermath of last Friday s global IT outage caused the cybersecurity firm s software update. On the other hand, a resurgence in AI darling Nvidia (+4%) and a 15% jump in the share price of Mattel on reports of a takeover bid drove the Nasdaq up 1.58% on the day. Treasuries staged a mini rally overnight as traders position themselves ahead of some key economic data later this week Q2 GDP and the PCE Price Index. The benchmark 10yr note is trading at 4.23%, better by 3bp, while the long bond saw its yield fall a like amount to 4.45%, though the 2yr note is unchanged at 4.50%. Corporate spreads were also unchanged with the average high grade bond trading 93bp over comparable Treasuries. It s worth noting, since it speaks to the demand for relatively safe corporate paper, that the spread (+212bp) between the average high grade bond and the average high yield bond, is trading at its tightest level of the year. In M&A news, German technology group Bosch has agreed to acquire Johnson Controls' residential ventilation businesses for $8bln. Meanwhile, cloud security concern Wiz has reportedly walked away from Google s $23bln offer to acquire the company in favor of pursuing the IPO route. . 2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 2024 VS 2023 COMPARISON . 22-Jul 07/01 WK 07/08 WK 07/15 WK 07/22 WK 07/29 WK MTD 23 MTD 24 YTD 23 YTD CHNG IND 0 6000 2750 2604 11354 7850 263129 280320 -6% UTL 0 0 600 0 600 400 79200 74390 6% FIG 0 2750 36850 4150 43750 30125 329900 211200 56% Y(I) 350 1000 3000 0 4350 1900 81184 42750 90% Y(F) 5000 8500 4900 1000 19400 18400 194370 157000 24% Y(U) 0 0 0 500 500 1500 15630 11000 42% SSA 7500 10000 3700 0 21200 0 263550 225700 17% EX-SSA 5350 18250 48100 8254 0 79954 60175 963413 776660 24.0% OVERALL 12850 28250 51800 8254 0 101154 75375 1226963 1002360 22.4% . 2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 07/22 WEEK, JULY & 2024 ESTIMATES . 07/22 WK LO EST AVE EST HI EST ACTUAL JUL LO EST AVE EST HI EST ACTUAL 2024 LO EST AVE EST HI EST ACTUAL EX-SSA $20.0B $30.0B $42.5B $8,254 EX-SSA $80.0B $85.0B $95.0B $79,954 EX-SSA $1.100B $1.275B $1.350B $963,413 OVERALL $27.5B $35.0B $55.0B $8,254 OVERALL $90.0B $100.0B $110.0B $101,154 OVERALL $1.350B $1.420B $1.550B $1,226,963 . 2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - RECENT MANDATES . ANNOUNCED ISSUER RATINGS MGRS CALL DEAL 30-May REC LIMITED BAA3/BBB- BARC/DBS/HSBC/MIZ/MUFG/SCB 3-Jun 144A REG S DEAL 19-Jul OCCIDENTAL PETE BAA3/BB+ BOA/JPM/MUFG/SMBC 22-Jul MULTI-TRANCHE DEAL 22-Jul WHISTLER PIPELINE BAA3/BBB- JPM/MIZ/MUFG 22-Jul 144A REG S DEAL . 2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 7/22 PRICINGS . ISSUE RATINGS MGRS AMT CALL CPN MAT SPRD TYPE 07/22 AMERICAN EXPRESS CO A2/BBB+ BOA/BARC/MS/RBC/WFS 500 NC3 SOFR+93 4YR FRN F 07/22 AMERICAN EXPRESS CO A2/BBB+ BOA/BARC/MS/RBC/WFS 1200 NC3 5.043 4YR +75 F 07/22 AMERICAN EXPRESS CO A2/BBB+ BOA/BARC/MS/RBC/WFS 1700 NC10 5.284 11YR +103 F 07/22 ALLY FINANCIAL BAA3/BBB- BOA/C/MS/RBC 750 NC10 5.127 11YR +192 F 07/22 KINDER MORGAN BAA2/BBB BOA/BMO/MUFG/RBC 500 T+15 5.100 5YR +95 I 07/22 KINDER MORGAN BAA2/BBB BOA/BMO/MUFG/RBC 750 T+25 5.950 30YR +150 I 07/22 UNITED AIRLINES AA3/AA C/GS/MS/DB/+ 969 A/L 5.450 12YR 5.45 I 07/22 UNITED AIRLINES A3/A C/GS/MS/DB/+ 385 A/L 5.875 12YR 5.875 I 07/22 NATIONWIDE BUILDING SOCIETY A1/A+ BOA/BARC/C/MS/WFS 1000 T+15 5.127 5YR +95 YF 07/22 KOREA HYDRO & NUCLEAR POWER AA2/AA BOA/C/CA/JPM/SCB/UBS 500 NC 4.625 5YR +70 YU 6/10 8254 6/10 8254 ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free demo of the service today.

US OPEN/EVENTS AHEAD Wednesday's US 5yr auction results were deemed 'mediocre' at 4.121% & 2.4 b/c vs 4.331% & 2.35 b/c prior. Today's US supply brings a $44bn 7yr notes (4.276% & 2.58 b/c prior) while Canada sells 2.75% 2055 bonds. Overnight, Japanese Jun PPI rose to 3% y/y from 2.7% prior vs 2.6% f/c. The US data calendar ahead includes Q2 advance GDP (2% f/c vs 1.4% prior), Personal Consumption (2% f/c vs 1.5% last) & GDP Price Index (2.6% f/c from 3.1%). Initial Jobless Claims (238k f/c from 243k previously) & Jun preliminary Durable Goods (0.3% f/c vs 0.1% prior). The big feature again yest was massive yield curve steepening as the short dates heavily outperformed. The US 2-10yr yield spread settled at -14.7bps (+11.8bps in 2 days), a wide since Jul 2022 with -6.5bps the next target & has widened to around -12.8bps this morning. The 2yr yield outright has seen a session nadir of 4.3379% (low since 2nd Feb) with a 2024 base at 4.1168%. The S&P500 index dumped 2.3% to a 6wk low close at 5427.1 with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-July rally kicking in at 5396.1 & futures are little changed. EUROPEAN ROUND UP Core EGB futures traded in 54-83 tick ranges with best gains of 39-44 ticks. The 10yr yield spread between the benchmarks has flattened from a near three month wide at 171.2bps to 170.4bps. Yield curves have maintained their steepening path on short end underperformance, the German & UK 2-10yr yield spreads have widened to highs since 30th October 2023 and 2nd March 2023 respectively. There has been a decent raft of data in the first half with French confidence metrics moderating from prior and missed their consensus forecasts & similarly, German IFO components followed suit, coming in weaker and missed expectations. Supply came from Italy who sold EUR 3.5bn of the new 3.1% 2026 bonds at an average yield of 3.1% & with a 1.5 bid to cover ratio, they sold EUR 1.25bn 1.5% 2029 index-linkers at 1.6% yield & 1.51 b/c & also sold EUR 1bn 2.55% 2041 linkers at 2.19% with a 1.48 b/c. Turning to riskier assets, equities have come under heavy selling pressure, declining as much as 1.75% in CAC which fell to a low since the 19th January. Brent has dropped to a five week nadir at $80.23brl. MARKET HEADLINES * French Jul Business Confidence fell to 94 from 99 vs unchanged predicted * French Jul Manufacturing Confidence down to 95 from 99 prior vs 99 f/c * French Jul Production Outlook Indicator -18 from -12 vs a steady -12 anticipated * German Jul IFO Business Climate softened to 87.0 from 88.6 prior vs 89.0 f/c * German Jul Current Assessment down to 87.1 from 88.3 vs 88.5 f/c * German Jul Expectations softened to 86.9 from 88.8 vs 89.3 predicted * UK Jul CBI Trends Total Orders fell to -32 from -18, missed the -20 f/c * UK Jul CB1 Trends Selling Prices down to 2 from 20 vs unchanged f/c * UK Jul CBI Business Optimism -9 from 9 prior vs 14 expected * Italy sold EUR 3.5bn 3.1% 2026 bonds at 3.1% &1.5 bid to cover ratio * UK 2yr yield down to near 6mth nadir at 4.3379 * UK 2-10yr yield spread steepens to wide since 2nd Mar 2023 * US 2-10yr spread out to wide since 12th Jul 2022 * FTSE down to 3mth low & CAC low since 19th Jan * Poor July German Ifo underlines growth concerns DAY AHEAD GMT CODE NAME ACTUAL PERIOD CONSENSUS PREVIOUS Thursday, July 25th 06:00 SE Producer Price Index (MoM) -0.4% Jun 0% 06:00 SE Producer Price Index (YoY) 0.8% Jun 2.6% 06:45 FR Business Climate in Manufacturing 95 Jul 99 99 07:00 TR Capacity Utilization 75.9% Jul 76.3% 07:00 TR Manufacturing Confidence 100.3 Jul 102.8 07:00 EMU Eurogroup Meeting 08:00 DE IFO Current Assessment 87.1 Jul 88.5 88.3 08:00 DE IFO Expectations 86.9 Jul 89 88.8 08:00 DE IFO Business Climate 87 Jul 88.9 88.6 08:00 EMU M3 Money Supply (3m) 1.7% Jun 1.3% 08:00 EMU Private Loans (YoY) 0.3% Jun 0.5% 0.3% 08:00 EMU M3 Money Supply (YoY) 2.2% Jun 1.8% 1.6% 09:30 ZA Producer Price Index (YoY) 4.6% Jun 4.6% 09:30 ZA Producer Price Index (MoM) -0.3% Jun 0.1% 11:30 IN M3 Money Supply 07-12-2024 9.7% 12:00 BR Mid-month Inflation Jul 0.23% 0.39% 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 07-19-2024 238 243 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average 07-19-2024 234.75 12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 07-12-2024 1.86 1.867 12:30 US Gross Domestic Product Price Index Q2 2.6% 3.1% 12:30 US Gross Domestic Product Annualized Q2 2% 1.4% 12:30 US Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) Q2 3.4% 12:30 US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) Q2 2.7% 3.7% 12:30 US Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Jun 0.2% -0.1% 12:30 US Durable Goods Orders ex Defense Jun -0.2% 12:30 US Durable Goods Orders Jun 0.3% 0.1% 12:30 US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft Jun 0.2% -0.6% 12:30 BR Current Account Jun $-3$ $-3.4$ 13:00 BE Leading Indicator Jul -11 -11.1 13:00 RU Central Bank Reserves $ $601.3$ 14:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) Jun -2.1% 14:00 US Pending Home Sales (YoY) Jun -6.6% 14:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 07-19-2024 13 10 15:00 US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity Jul -11 15:00 EMU ECB's De Guindos speech 15:00 EMU ECB's President Lagarde speech 15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.27% 17:00 US 7-Year Note Auction 4.276% 22:00 NZ ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Jul 83 23:01 IE Consumer Confidence Jul 70.5 23:30 JP Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) Jul 2.2% 2.1% 23:30 JP Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) Jul 2.3% 23:30 JP Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) Jul 1.8% ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. 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EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/CAD DOW DXY OPEN 1.1067 144.80 1.3278 0.6900 1.3480 -173.18 101.32 HIGH Closed LOW @ CLOSE 1.1066 143.66 1.3279 0.6885 1.3492 42, 156.97 101.23 The main FX pairings are pretty much where we left them last night, apart from the usual suspect, Usd/Jpy. The pair has jumped to 144.86 from around the 144.10 area, after Japan's new PM Ishiba stated that the country is "not in the environment now to raise rates again." Ishiba added that he had exchanged opinions with BoJ Governor Ueda on the economy and that they will do all they can to overcome deflation. The new PM vowed to make the economy strong with an economic package and stated that he expects the monetary easing trend to stay in place. It is worth noting that the Bank of Japan is independent, so Ishiba cannot influence the central bank to any great degree. Earlier Ueda had said that Japan's economy is recovering moderately and that he expects the price trend to rise gradually. Meanwhile the news flow is dominated by the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran. Yesterday evening, Israel was attacked by a large number of Iranian missiles. Israeli PM Netanyahu has vowed retaliation, which Iran has said would be met with a "crushing" response. BBC News reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu described the attack as "a big mistake" and promised Iran "will pay for it" after Tehran launched a missile attack on Israel. The Israeli military says around 180 missiles were fired, most of which were intercepted. The escalation followed Israel's decision to invade Lebanon in a "limited, localized and targeted" ground operation against Hezbollah. The UN and EU have reiterated calls for a ceasefire, with the UN Security Council due to meet today and latterly the British broadcaster reporting another night of Israeli airstrikes in Beirut. All signs now point to an October ECB rate cut, after the ECB's Kazaks stated that recent data point to a move next month, while Guindos warned that risks to growth are still tilted to the downside. Last night the new SNB President Schlegel stated that the central bank can't exclude a return to negative interest rates. Schlegel added that downward risks to inflation are bigger than those to the upside and that he expects Swiss growth to be subdued in coming quarters. On the subject of FX, Schlegel insisted that while their main instrument is the SNB policy rate, they will not exclude being active in FX markets. Also overnight, in the debate of the US VP candidates, Tim Walz and JD Vance sparred over abortion and the economy. Walz was viewed as stumbling over responses to tensions in the Middle East and previous misstatements, while Vance repeatedly targeted Democratic presidential nominee Harris. A CBS poll after stated Vance won by a tiny margin. Today's US data focus falls on the ADP Private Payroll report, ahead of Friday's NFPs. We should also hear from the Fed's Hammack, Musalem, Bowman and Barkin, as well as the ECB's Elderson and Schnabel. ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

** IG issuers stayed away from the primary bond market completely Thursday, with high-grade issuers so far this week having only printed EUR4.95bn in the single currency – well off the average EUR12.5bn estimate. HY paper was issued on the day though via Europi Property Group, Arrow Global and EIFFEL, as detailed in IGM’s DAILY EUR NICS & BOOKS. They put the overall weekly single currency total at EUR7.497bn, with another HY name in the form of Asmodee Group set to print a EUR940m 5NC2 FXD and 5NC1 FRN two-part secured on Friday ** IG corporate names were back to the sidelines on Thursday, leaving the weekly single currency haul for the sector at a paltry EUR1bn. That means we have so far only met the lowest estimate (EUR1bn) given by participants in our latest issuance poll, and are set to fall well-short of the EUR4bn average weekly guess given there is just a Friday session to go and an empty pipeline. Thursday’s blank comes after corporate activity was limited to a single EUR500m no grow 5yr green from Fingrid on Wednesday which propelled year-to-date euro corporate (ex-HY) ESG issuance beyond the EUR100bn (EUR100.1bn to be precise) for the first time ever. See the IGM CORP SNAPSHOT Friday's primary prospects HY: ** Asmodee Group AB (B2/B/B+) mandated BNP, JPM (B&D) as Joint Global Coordinators and Joint Physical Bookrunners, SEB, Societe Generale, Swedbank, Credit Agricole CIB as Joint Bookrunners and ING, Natwest Markets as Co-Managers for a EUR940m (Minimum tranche sizes EUR300m) two-part RegS/144A Senior Secured with 5NC2 FXD and 5NC1 FRN tranches. Talk is 6-6.25% and E+400 respectively ** Azerion Group N.V hired Pareto Securities as global coordinator and joint bookrunner and Arctic Securities as joint bookrunner for a EUR300m max tap of the company’s 10.029% Oct 2026 SSN issue (ISIN NO0013017657, EUR215m current O/S) ** Mohinder FinCo AB (publ) (u.c.n.f. Goldcup 101357 AB) mandated Arctic Securities and Nordea as Global Coordinators and Arctic Securities, Danske Bank, Nordea, SEB, and Swedbank as Joint Bookrunners to explore the possibility of issuing senior secured floating rate bonds with an expected initial issue size of EUR175m and a framework of EUR350m, subject to prevailing market conditions ** The IGM Roadshow Calendar is your one stop window on who, when and where. The calendar view provides an instant snapshot of which days are already earmarked for meetings in a convenient PDF format, with clickable links that take you directly to the known schedule Thursday's broader market developments ** European stocks make solid gains Thursday amid an advance in Tech, on hopes that US tariffs on China tech sales may not be as strong as first feared. On the data front German prelim CPI figures showed the national headline at 2.2% YoY, up 20bp on Oct, but 10bp lower than consensus. HICP was 2.4% YoY, the same as previous and -20bp versus the market estimate. That contrasted with Spain where the national CPI number rose more than expected on an annual basis in Nov to 2.4% (f/c 2.3%, prev 1.8%). US markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. ECB's Villeroy spoke, indicating that at the following meetings, rate cuts shouldn't be ruled out. Also, for the 12-Dec GC, there is every reason to cut, but optionality should remain open as to size (i.e. 25 or 50bp) ** Stoxx600 jumped as much as 0.79% led by a surge in Tech stocks (up 1.2% at time of writing) ** Govvies: EGB yields lower across the board (accelerated in wake of Villeroy comments), with OATs slightly outperforming Bunds after a run of underperformance. This sent the 10yr OAT yield under 3% for the first time since 29-Oct. Despite that, quotes show that the 10yr French yield trades virtually flat to the Greek equivalent. See OATS outperform! But political risk remains in abundance ** Data: SP Nov P CPI higher than exp at 2.4% YoY (f/c 2.3%, prev 1.8%) IT Nov Consumer/Manufacturing Confidence mixed at 96.6/86.5 (f/c 97.4/85.0, prev 97.4/85.8) EC Oct M3 Money Supply rose as exp to 3.4% (prev 3.2%) EC Nov Economic/Industrial/Services Confidence mixed at 95.8/-11.1/5.3 (f/c 95.2/-13.0/6.5, prev rev to 95.7/-12.6/6.8) GE Nov P CPI rose less that exp at 2.2% YoY (f/c 2.3%, prev 2.0%), EU Harmonized number unchanged at 2.4% (prev 2.4%, f/c 2.6%) What to watch Friday – Eurozone CPI ** Key Data: JN Oct Housing Starts (05:00), JN Nov Consumer Confidence Index (05:00), GE Oct Import Price Index (07:00), GE Oct Retail Sales (07:00), FR Oct Consumer Spending (07:45), FR Nov P CPI (07:45), FR Q3 F GDP (07:45), SP Oct Retail Sales (08:00), GE Nov Unemployment Rate (08:55), ECB Oct 1yr/3yr CPI Expectations (09:00), UK Oct Mortgage Approvals (09:30), IT Nov P CPI (10:00) and EC Nov P CPI (10:00) ** Key Events: BoE’s financial stability review (10:30). ECB’s Guindos (11:30) & Nagel (13:00) speak ** Auctions: No major term auctions scheduled for Friday 29th Nov All times GMT ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

EU stocks are set to give back a portion of Thursday’s sizeable gains at the open although markets are still potentially set for weekly gains after Stoxx600 closed 1.38% higher on Thursday, or 1.11% higher for the week. That comes after S&P500 (+1.7%) and Nasdaq (+2.51%) both rallied hard Thursday, taking the former to a record high, loosely chalked up to increased hopes for a soft landing. It seems hard to really pinpoint an exact catalyst though given that Wall Street stocks had closed lower Wednesday in the immediate aftermath of the Fed's decision and presser. In any case, Asian markets have been running with the positive Wall Street handover with notable exception of mainland China. In contrast to the Fed’s outsized cut, the BoJ held rates steady today while China left LPR rates unchanged, both as widely expected. Today’s data slate kicks off with UK Aug Retail Sales and public borrowing data and comes after UK Sep Gfk Consumer Confidence sank overnight to -20 (from -13), chalked up to expectations of a painful October budget. Also due today is German Aug PPI, French Sep Business/Mfg Confidence and EC Sep Preliminary Consumer Confidence. Central bank speak comes from ECB President Lagarde and the Fed's Harker. Rates markets get a break from supply following the steepening move seen Thursday. Elsewhere, it will be worth watching synthetic credit markets after the cost of default protection fell to a fresh long-term low in Europe on Thursday (iTraxx Crossover hits the tightest level since Feb 2022) For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing. Friday’s supply prospects A handful of names remain lurking in the public pipeline ahead of Friday’s open and could add to what has been a slower overall week for single currency issuance. Thursday’s quartet of issuers brought EUR6.36bn to put the overall weekly total at EUR24.01bn and well short of last week’s final EUR41.075bn haul. IG issuers have contributed EUR21.35bn to the latest flurry, less than the average EUR24bn which contributors to our weekly issuance poll predicted. ** Gemeinsame NRW Kommunen EUR 9yr sub-benchmark bond (Staedteanleihe No. 8) ** Spar Nord Bank inaugural EUR250m (exp) 6nc5 green senior non-preferred ** Grenke EUR300-500m long 4yr social ** KHFC EUR long 3yr or 5yr social covered Thursday’s USD2.8bn brought US ex-SSA issuance for the month to USD133.2bn, still below the average monthly estimate of USD137bn, though we still have a week to go, which, in all likelihood, should afford us ample time to not only top the average estimate, but reach the highest monthly estimate of USD146bn. For more colour, see THE ENDGAME. What to watch today ** Key Data: UK Aug Retail Sales (07:00), UK Aug PSNB ex Banking Groups (07:00), GE Aug PPI (07:00), FR Sep Business/Manufacturing Confidence (07:45) and EC Sep P Consumer Confidence (15:00) ** Key Events: ECB’s Lagarde (16:00) and Fed’s Harker (19:00) speak ** Auctions: No major term auctions scheduled for Friday 20th Sep All times BST ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

** New single-currency bond issuance remains elusive but there was plenty going on elsewhere in the broader market place. Starting with equities, there is a broad sense developing (from market movements alone) that the week's early jitters may have been 'marginally' overdone - Stoxx600 and US indices (albeit in early trading at the time of writing) were a sea of green with the former adding over 1.7% and seeing a re-acceleration towards the close of play on Wednesday. That sense of 'overdone' was also evident in government bonds. Looking closer it appears that mid to longer dated bonds are underperforming the front end in yield terms, partially a case of the unwinding of safe haven bets but at the same time keeping one eye on the prospect of near-term rate cuts. The upshot is that 2s10s curves in many jurisdictions are steeper with German and UK both hitting highs not seen since Nov 2022 ** A little closer to home for the credit markets the iTraxx indices were tighter on the day with Main trading sub 62 (after a peak in excess of 69 on Monday) and Crossover squeezing to below 325 after a multi-month high at the beginning of the week that saw a spike to 360 as investors sought risk protection ** The VIX softened 18.8% to a 5-day low at 22.49. That compared to a spike as high as 65.73 on Monday IGM Monthly Reports ** IGM Global Credit Snapshot - July 2024 - Overall European single currency issuance dipped in July in line with summer ‘norms’ but that trend was bucked by the FIG and HY sub-sectors. The YTD total passed through the EUR1tn marker and remains around 10% higher than last year. APAC saw the wind taken out of its sails in the latter half of the month with July’s total of USD24.619bn (incl. Japan) marking a sharp decline from the USD35.384bn seen in June. That said, it was still sufficient for July to record the third highest month of the year so far. IG ex-SSA issuance in the US for July 2024 was USD125.504bn - the second-highest ever for the month, surpassing July 2017's USD120.33bn and coming just behind July 2015's USD128.48bn. The surprisingly large haul brought the year-to-date ex-SSA new issue volume to USD1.009tn, or 23.1% ahead of this time last year ** European SF: July 2024 Supply in Review - July closed with around EUR14.5bn of bonds placed with investors, which was up around 25% on June. Among that total, CLOs and RMBS led the way. CLOs accounted for 22 deals, and 12 of those were new issues (the rest being nine resets and one refi). July's tally of EUR5.2bn took the YTD new issue CLO total to EUR30bn. RMBS sales of around EUR4bn helped the YTD total to nearly EUR35bn and more than double the volume seen at the same stage in 2023. The auto market was more subdued, with just two deals printing Thursday's primary prospects At the time of writing, the public pipeline remains empty. ** The IGM Roadshow Calendar is your one stop window on who, when and where. The calendar view provides an instant snapshot of which days are already earmarked for meetings in a convenient PDF format, with clickable links that take you directly to the known schedule Wednesday's broader market developments ** EU stocks extended opening gains with financials leading a broad-based rise. Opening stock bid followed a positive Asian handover where Nikkei reversed opening losses after BoJ deputy governor Uchida ruled out further rate increases while markets were “unstable”. Rise in EU stocks also came as Wall Street was heading for a second day of gains. In the rates complex, yields rose, chalked up to a further unwind of haven flows & scaling back of rate cut bets, and also as Germany & UK conducted regular auctions ahead of a 10yr UST sale ** Stoxx600 +1.8% at best, or up to 3.5% off Monday’s low ** Govvies: 2yr & 10yr GER yields rise by up to 5.9bps and 8.8bps. Gilts outperformed Data: CH Exports YoY missed at 7.0% (exp 9.5%, prev 8.6%) CH Imports YoY beat at 7.2% (exp 3.2%, prev -2.3%) GE Jun Industrial Production MoM beat at 1.4% (exp 1.0%, prev rev to -3.1%) GE Jun Exports SA MoM missed at -3.4% (exp -1.5%, prev rev to -3.1%) GE Jun Imports SA MoM missed at 0.3% (exp 2.5%, prev rev to -5.5%) What to watch Thursday - Earnings, jobless claims and a long-dated US bond sale ** Key Data: UK Jul RICS House Price (00:01), JN Jun Trade Balance (00:50), US Aug 3 Initial Jobless Claims (13:30), US Jul 27 Continuing Claims (13:30), US Jun F Wholesale Inventories (15:00) ** Key Events: BOJ Summary of Opinions (00:50), Fed's Barkin speaks (20:00) ** Government Auctions: Japan to sell JPY900bn 30yr bonds (04:35), US to sell USD25bn 30yr bonds (18:00) ** Earnings: 20 Stoxx600 and 16 S&P500 companies release results All times BST ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

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** Overall: Overall EUR supply rose by 17% m-o-m in an unusually active November as issuers took advantage of improving sentiment and tightening spreads to lock in late 2022 funding. The EUR116.12bn raised qualified the month as the busiest November ever. Banks led the resurgence where non-covered FIG supply more than trebled vs October to account for 37% of the entire month's volumes as financials rushed back in to follow a challenging October. Not all asset classes were active though as a relative dearth of sovereign supply saw SSAs slump to their second slowest month of 2022 so far. While sentiment toward risk assets improved, underlying rates curves flattened with the German 2s/10s curve inverting as slowdown risks and China Covid concerns intensified, pulling oil prices sharply lower. ** FIG (ex-covered): A frontloaded month saw issuers regain greater pricing power as the improved mood brought uninvested cash surging off the side-lines. Strong issuance conditions facilitated what was easily this year's biggest month for the asset class while volumes were also over 60% bigger than November last year. With that, average NICs fell sharply (to the lowest since May) while the average cover ratio was the highest since March. ** IG Corporates (ex-HY): Euro supply picked up slightly from the previous month to EUR28.845bn (EUR22.6bn in October) but was broadly in line with expectations after the previous 10 Novembers had averaged EUR29.03bn. Noticeable that was that November's issuers secured more economic funding on the whole against a more favourable broader backdrop, with the average NIC paid plunging to 10.48bps from the previous month's 29.15bps. Bringing November's average down were two very well received hybrid trades from Orsted (EUR500m 1000NC6 green) and EDF (EUR1bn PNC6), which both priced well inside fair value estimations on the back of final blowout demand of EUR4.9bn and EUR5.6bn respectively. ** SSA: In contrast to the other asset classes SSAs had the second lowest volume month of the year so far. Just EUR25.15bn of SSA supply crossed the line with that figure heavily flattered by one issuer. The European Union actually accounted for 34% of the month's supply, with an EUR8.5bn dual tranche that included a new long 10yr Green benchmark. Sovereign issuance was subdued with just Hungary and Denmark choosing new syndicated deals with the latter marking a rare foray into the EUR-denominated space for an issuer that has recently relied upon supply in its home currency. New issue concessions averaged 7.93bp (down from 11.96bp in October) despite the aforementioned Hungarian Green 4yr line adopting a pragmatic approach and pricing with a 50bp NIC. ** Covered: Unsurprisingly, the month that heralded 2022 as biggest year for euro covered issuance was itself among the record-breaking months for volumes. EUR18.6bn was sold during November across 22 lines, the most activity that the month had seen since 2006 (formally the highest volume year) when EUR20bn+ was launched. Notable during the month was that issuers continued to favour the shorter end of the curve, with the average tenor at 4.08yr, slightly down from 4.49yr during October with two further 2yr lines following LBBW's pioneering 2yr trade and BNS 2yr both from October. Elsewhere, the sector seemed to be showing some signs of fatigue as average cover ratios eased slightly, in step with slower average spread compressions, while average NICs increased to a four-month high. ** High Yield: Volumes in high yield remained subdued despite Faurecia printing the largest single corporate note in the single currency since February (and third largest this year). However, that was the only action the market saw in November as the monthly volume failed to top EUR1bn for the fifth time this year. Faurecia's EUR700m 7.25% 3.5NC2 SLB sold during COP27 was a far cry from 12-months earlier when the same issuer raised EUR1.2bn of 2.75% 5.25NC2.25 sustainability-linked paper during COP26 as part of a blockbuster week for HY ESG issuance when EUR5.73bn printed.

28 June 2024 | By Edward Blake Broader consolidation continues for many pairs and any significant moves are likely driven by interest rate differentials. Near-term weakness for Cryptos before heading higher and global yields threaten to roll over and form broader tops. The exception is JGB’s which head higher. Check out our FX & Rates quarterly outlook below for further information!

A negative Asian handover is setting up EU stocks for a significantly weaker start which currently looks likely to scrub out most of Monday’s gains that were seen in the holiday impacted session, not exactly ideal for those with a go/no-go call scheduled for this morning. Cash USTs reopened overnight with yields nudging higher as markets position for higher inflation associated with promised tax cuts and tariffs aligned with a Trump presidency. US equities are evidently taking higher yields in their stride for now, but it will be interesting to see the extent to which higher yields and elevated stocks can coexist on a longer-term basis. Monday’s US stock gains were perhaps more symbolic than significant though where modest rises for S&P500 (+0.10%) and Nasdaq (+0.06%) were sufficient to produce record closes on both indices with S&P closing above 6k for the first time ever. US index futures currently suggest a muted start. In Asia, negative sentiment has gripped markets today, with attention and thoughts on tighter restrictions of chip shipments to China. Today’s session features lots of central bank speak but relatively limited data besides already released UK labour market data which showed an unexpected rise in headline earnings in the three months to Sep but weaker than expected employment gains. Still to come is German ZEW data where the Expectations and Current Situation readings are both seen improving in Nov. That leaves the data spotlight and near-term thoughts on Wednesday’s US CPI print, ahead of which markets are currently ascribing around a 70% probability to 25bps rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in December (CME data). On the auction front are sales from Germany, Netherlands & UK (details below). For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing. Tuesday’s supply prospects Single currency supply is expected to return on Tuesday, although the pipeline offers little visibility as to just how busy it will be with only one name (Eurofima) currently present. As a reminder, an average combined supply estimate of EUR20.5bn was put forward by respondents in our latest issuance survey, but we drew a blank on Monday amid the holiday. Sterling supply was on the menu at the start of the week though thanks to NatWest (GBP500m 5yr Senior OpCo) and KfW (GBP300m Dec 2026 tap), with a recap here. ** Eurofima EUR500m no grow Jan 2035 green Stateside, according to the results of our weekly issuance poll, now that the dust has settled after Trump’s convincing victory, the Street is looking (on average) for USD30bn in new supply to hit the US market this week, despite the fact that it will be a four-day work week. For more details see the IG WEEKLY WRAP UP. What to watch today ** Key Data: GE Oct ZEW Survey (10:00) and US Oct NFIB Small Business Optimism (11:00) ** Key Events: ECB’s Rehn (08:00), Centeno (09:00) & Cipollone (14:00), BoE’s Pill (09:00), as well as Fed’s Waller (15:00), Barkin (15:15 & 22:30), Kashkari (19:00) & Harker (22:00) speak ** Auctions: NE to sell up to EUR2.5bn 2029 Bonds (09:00), UK to sell GBP2.25bn 2043 Gilts (10:00) & GE to sell EUR5bn 2026 Schatz (10:30) ** Earnings: 13 Stoxx600 & 6 S&P500 companies report All times GMT ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

Published 5th July 2024 I By Gavin Kendrick Key Takeaways: Europe: Issuance dropped to EUR81.761bn, the lowest since October 2023. Political uncertainty led to the year's lowest cover ratios and highest NICs. APAC: Issuance surged from USD5.7bn in early June to USD31.584bn later. NICs rose but stayed low; cover ratios weakened. US: Ex-SSA issuance hit USD102.675bn, beating all estimates. June marked the fifth time in a decade surpassing USD100bn, with industrials and FIG leading. See our Global Credit Snapshot for June 2024 below for further details.

Cash USTs modestly cheapened during the Asia-Pac session, with the short-end underperforming. Yields have flattened out towards the long-end. The 2-year yield is up 1-2bp. This, after Trump delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days after discussions with their leaders, suggesting tariffs are being used as a negotiation tool rather than for a full-scale trade war. The US NEC director stated that Canada had misunderstood the tariff order. Meanwhile, a 10% tariff on China has taken effect, but Trump indicated upcoming talks within 24 hours, warning that tariffs could be significantly increased if no deal is reached. China has since imposed new tariffs (10%) on US products and includes 15% levies on coal and LNGs. In the latest Fedspeak, Goolsbee advocated for a more cautious approach to rate cuts, citing rising uncertainty stemming from Trump. Meanwhile, Fed's Bostic signalled a preference to hold off on easing for "a while." Elsewhere, EGB debt futures are lower, with Mar25 OATs down 35-40 ticks after France PM Bayrou used a constitutional provision to force the adoption a 2025 budget bill, bypassing the lower house of parliament, which will likely trigger a no-confidence vote. Bunds are off around 45 ticks. US and European equity future markets are in a sea of red. Asia cash equites are mixed, with Hang Seng +2%. Note, China has launched a probe into Google for alleged antitrust violations and has placed several U.S. companies on its "blacklist" of restricted entities. Brent has continued to slide in early trade on Tuesday, now hovering just a touch above yesterday's 1mth low of $75.04/brl. Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline No new additions to the pipeline. On the Radar Romaniahas now priced a EUR/USD Reg S Cat 1 three-part issue in the following format: EUR1.4bn 5yr (March-2030) at m/s+305bps, in from the m/s+310bps guidance and m/s +330bps area IPTs. EUR1.4bn long 9yr (February-2037) at m/s+400bps, in from the m/s+405bps guidance and m/s+420bps area IPTs. USD1.25bn 12yr (February 2037) at T+300bps, in from the T_305bps guidance and T+325bps area IPTs. Final demand topped EUR4.8bn combined, excluding JLM interest, on the EUR books as well as USD2.6bn (also excluding JLM interest). Limak Yenilenebilir Enerji A.S.one of the largest purely renewable energy generation players in Türkiye with 10 power plants constituting close to 1GWe of installed capacity across Hydro, Solar and Geothermal, commenced fixed income investor calls on Friday (January 31) and yesterday (February 03) to advertise an inaugural USD450mm Reg S 5.5NC2 (5.2yr WAL) Senior Amortising Green Note. LRE has mandated BofA Securities and J.P. Morgan as Joint Global Coordinators and Bookrunners, alongside Emirates NBD Capital as a Joint Bookrunner. Note, according to Captial Markets Board, the issuer received approval to sell up to USD600mn green bonds last week. The link to the net roadshow can be found here. It’s worth noting that on behalf of The Govt. of the Emirate of Ras Al Khaimah, acting through the Investment and Development Office of Ras Al Khaimah (“IDO”),is holding an investor call later this week (February 07). IDO has mandated Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Citigroup, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah, and Standard Chartered Bank. Priced Deals Date Issuer Ccy Amount (m) Coupon Maturity Yield Spread IPTS to Pxd Book size (m) Coverage NICs 3-Feb Romania EUR 1400 6.250 10/09/2034 6.337 M+400 -20.0 3-Feb Romania EUR 1250 7.500 10/02/2037 7.547 M+300 -25.0 2600 2.08 3-Feb Romania USD 1400 5.250 10/03/2030 5.288 T+305 -25 What to watch on Tuesday A light calendar in CEEMEA, with no key data or announcements scheduled. In the US, JOLTs job openings (15GMT) take the spotlight, seen falling to 8000k in December from 8098k prior, which backs the view that the labour market is on a cooling trend. If quits keep falling (1.9% in November), wage pressure should ease further. Factory orders are seen declining -0.7% in December from -0.4%. Durable goods orders (final) are seen unchanged at -2.2% m/m. Prelim core-shipments were an impressive +0.6% m/m. Central bank speakers to talk include the ECB's Villeroy (13.30GMT) and the Fed's Bostic (16GMT) and Daly (19GMT). Wider market Sentiment USD Index at 108.81 UST 2yr/10yr at 4.264%/4.569% Bund 2yr/10yr at 2.015%/2.380% Brent at $75.25/brl ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

** Issuance windows have been hard to come by in recent weeks amid the escalating trade wars, but one presented itself on Monday with European stocks firmly in the green. Making the most of the window we had a trio of names with SSA borrower NIB joined by a couple of corporate names in the form of Gasunie and General Mills. The trio raised EUR2.5bn and kicked off a week which participants in our issuance poll expected to yield an average EUR13.5bn of (ex-HY) paper. The deals went well, and should the better tone hold on Tuesday then we would expect others to go live and launch a trade ahead of the looming ECB verdict which is followed by Easter holidays. For full details of Monday’s single currency trades, see IGM’s DAILY EUR NICS & BOOKS ** Nederlandse Gasunie (EUR 10yr) and General Mills Inc (EUR 7yr) represented the IG corporate arena on Monday, with the pair taking EUR750m apiece out the market via their opportunistic trades. The pair appeared to take a pragmatic approach to pricing with both issuers printing with 10bps NICs having started 45-50bps and 45bps back of fair value respectively, perhaps not a shock at a time where uncertainty remains in broader markets. The price revisions came after demand peaked at EUR3.1bn on General Mills and EUR3.2bn on Gasunie, but whilst all orders stayed on board for the former, Gasunie saw final orders drop considerably to EUR2bn at the final count. Monday’s activity comes after volatility limited corporate issuance to just EUR1.2bn from two issuers across the whole of last week, meaning we have already beaten that and put us on course to hit the average estimate of EUR3bn. Aussie duo AusNet (EUR 10yr benchmark) and Woolworths (EUR 7.5yr benchmark) remain in the pipeline after recent roadshows, but neither of those have decided that it is the time to go yet. Should we see another positive open on Tuesday though, they could be tempted to pull the trigger. See the IGM CORP SNAPSHOT ** Just EUR5bn is expected to surface in SSAs this week. If that transpires then it would be an even slower week than the one just gone (EUR9.25bn) where for the most part market participants were questioning whether up was actually down and 'would-be' issuers across all sub-sectors donned their respective 'tin hats'. Monday got off to a relatively fast start, in that a deal actually went live and successfully crossed the line, but at EUR1bn the new long 3yr line from the Nordic Investment Bank (NIB) is only putting a reasonably small dent in the weekly guesstimate. At best we would require another 4 of those to get to the average [estimate] but with Thursday being ECB day and Friday being a religious holiday (Good Friday) in a significant proportion of issuance's most important jurisdictions then the window really is only open until Wednesday. We are going to require 2 or 3 deals to surface on Tuesday morning to get the ball rolling quickly enough to reach the goal by midweek but with nothing in the immediate pipeline (not even an LSA tap barring the weeks old mandate from Queensland) the likelihood is looking slim at the moment. That said, risk assets across the board have had a pretty settling day with EGB (especially away from Germany) and Gilt yields falling significantly and with stocks waiting patiently to weigh in significant gains for the day. Let's see what surfaces Wednesday! ** The IGM European Weekly Credit Overview is your comprehensive round-up of primary European new issue activity including pricing, order book information, new issue concessions and ISINs Tuesday's primary prospects SSA: ** Queensland Treasury Corporation (Aa1/AA+), the central financing authority for the Queensland Government, mandated Citi, J.P. Morgan, RBC Capital Markets, UBS Investment Bank, and Westpac to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings commencing 17-Mar. An inaugural EUR 10yr benchmark transaction may follow Corps: ** Australian retail giant Woolworths Group Limited (Baa2/BBB) has mandated BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and ING as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of European fixed income investor meetings 31-Mar until 2-Apr. A EUR benchmark 7.5yr senior unsecured offering may follow ** Australian diversified energy infrastructure business AusNet Services Holding Pty Limited (Baa1/BBB+) mandated BNP Paribas, Citigroup, ING and SMBC to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings and calls commencing 2-4 Apr. A EUR 10yr benchmark senior unsecured transaction may follow ** Lagardere SA (unrated) hired BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole CIB, Natixis and Societe Generale as Global Coordinators along with CIC, Citi, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE and Morgan Stanley as Active Bookrunners calls Monday and Tuesday for EUR500m no grow 5yr bond offering ** The IGM Roadshow Calendar is your one-stop window on who, when and where. The calendar view provides an instant snapshot of which days are already earmarked for meetings in a convenient PDF format, with clickable links that take you directly to the known schedule Monday's broader market developments ** European stocks started the week on the front-foot, spurred by news that Trump has paused import duties on a range of consumer electronics. Caution remained though with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicating that these products may still face new levies in the near future. Showing that nerves remain, spot gold hit a new all-time high on the day at USD3245.75, whilst govvies were also well-bid. The US Dollar Index plummeted to a three-year low, dipping below the 100 mark and reflecting a broader loss of confidence in US assets. Goldman Sachs was the latest US bank to report earnings and saw its share price jump as stock traders posted their highest revenue haul on record ** Stoxx600 advanced as much as 2.8% and breached the psychological 500 level. Latest gains led by Energy and Tech stocks ** Govvies: EBG yields were lower across the board, with the periphery slightly outperforming the core. 10yr GER yields falls as much as 6.1bps versus 12.6bps on the IT equivalent ** Data: CH Mar Imports/Exports mixed at -4.3%/12.4% (f/c -2.1%/4.6%, prev 1.5%/-3.0%) JN Feb F Industrial Production revised down to 2.3% MoM (flash 2.5%) What to watch Tuesday ** Key Data: UK Feb ILO Unemployment Rate (07:00), UK Feb Average Weekly Earnings (07:00), FR Mar F CPI (07:45), GE Apr ZEW Survey (10:00), EC Feb Industrial Production (10:00), US Apr Empire Manufacturing (13:30) and US Mar Import Price Index (13:30) ** Key Events: ECB Bank Lending Survey (09:00) ** Auctions: UK to sell GBP4bn 2035 Gilts (10:00), GE to sell EUR4.5bn 2030 Bobls (10:30) and FI to sell EUR1.5bn 2031 & 2055 Bonds (11:00) ** Earnings: 2 Stoxx600 & 7 S&P500 companies report. Latter includes Bank of America and Citigroup All times BST ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

The DXY is steady along the 106.600 handle after late Friday, the Fed's Collins said she was not raking a possible Dec cut off the table & 'some amount of easing' is appropriate over time. Fed Goolsbee sees rates softening along the lines of the dot plot and added that the Fed may slow the pace of cuts as it nears neutral. Fed's Barkin is still seeing inflation progress & the hope & expectation is that it will come down next year. Incoming US President Trump's he search for his chief economic policymaker devolved into disarray over the weekend, with contenders tussling for support, aides scrambling to find alternative candidates and Trump fuming over the behind-the-scenes chaos that has spilled into public view. Nikkei shed 1% to a 13-day low on concerns over Trump's potentially inflationary policies but Hang Seng firmed 1.8% on a surprise buyback plan by Samsung. S&P500 futures are up 0.25% ahead of the EZ open from a 12-day low close Fri. Front month Brent futures hit a fractional new 7wk low at $70.70brl Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline Date Issuer Ccy Book Managers Security Description Description Comps At Ann. Today 18-Nov Republic of Poland JPY MUFG. NOM, SMBC NIKKO Reg S 3yr IPG: YMS+55bp area. 5yr IPG: YMS+65bp area. 7yr PG: YMS+75bp area. 10yr, IPG: YMS+90bp area. 20yr, IPG: YMS+110bp area. 30yr IPG: YMS+120bp area. On the Radar Republic of Poland, rated A2 (Stable) / A (Stable) (Moody’s / JCR) is issuing a potential 3yr, 5yr, 7yr, 10yr, 20yr and 30yr JPY-denominated Samurai senior fixed rate transaction. For 3yr (26 November 2027 tenor, IPG: YMS+55bp area. For 5yr (28 November 2029) tenor, IPG: YMS+65bp area. For 7yr (28 November 2031) tenor, IPG: YMS+75bp area. For 10yr (28 November 2034) tenor, IPG: YMS+90bp area. For 20yr (28 November 2044) tenor, IPG: YMS+110bp area. For 30yr (27 November 2054 tenor, IPG: YMS+120bp area. One or more tranches may be dropped subject to issuer's preference and demand. Has mandated Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Nomura and SMBC Nikko as Joint Lead Managers for this offering. The transaction is expected to be launched soon subject to market conditions. Priced Deals No new priced deals. What to watch on Monday In CEEMEA, focus will be on Czech's PPI data (8GMT), Poland's Core CPI data (13GMT) Central bankers expected to speak today include the Fed's Goolsbee (15GMT). From the ECB, Guindos, Makhlouf, Lane, Stournaas, Greene, Vujcic & Lagarde. Wider market Sentiment USD Index at 106.712 UST 2yr/10yr at 4.303%/4.432% Bund 2yr/10yr at 2.133%/2.343% Brent at $71.32/brl ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

Macro headline drivers were largely absent in Asia-Pac hours, leaving the focus centred on developments / headlines from over the weekend in addition to key upcoming events - US tariffs on Mexico & Canada due to kick in on 4th March and additional levies on Chinese goods. Participants are returning from the weekend to news of an emergency security summit in relation to Ukraine being held in London - with various European countries (plus Canada and Turkey) seen in attendance. The willingness / ability of European countries to fill a potential gap in the shape of the US (after last Friday's Oval office showing) is clearly a development worth watching closely. European stock futures are being buoyed by the news with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up around 0.8% at the time of writing. US e-mini equity index futures are roughly 0.1 - 0.2% higher, having traded on either side of neutral overnight. That sees them retaining most of last Friday's 1.4% - 1.5% gains which came on the back of US PCE for Feb, although we shouldn't overlook the fact that they had recently hit 1.5- to 3-month lows (such has been the scale of weakness in US equities). Overnight, on the data front, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI reading for Feb showed the sector rising further into expansion, marking its fastest pace of growth seen since Nov 2024, expanding for a fifth straight month. Perhaps most of note, manufacturers acknowledged growing optimism regarding the outlook. Final manufacturing PMIs for Feb are due out of the euro-area, France, Germany and the UK, with various PMIs due across Sweden, Switzerland, Italy, and Norway as well. Italy will be releasing GDP data for 2024, while the German BuBa will be releasing its proposal on its debt brake reform. Across the Channel, the UK will receive money supply, consumer credit data and mortgage approvals for January. In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI for Feb will likely be the headline, with expectations regarding the Prices Paid sub-gauge seen riding high at present (BBG median 56.3; Jan 54.9), with forecasters seen calling for the index to rise to its highest seen since Feb 2022. St Louis Fed President Musalem is the sole Fed speaker scheduled to appear today. For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing. Monday's supply prospects Despite this week’s issuance window being impacted by Thursday’s ECB verdict, survey respondents anticipate the single currency issuance pace to remain brisk with a EUR35bn average combined estimate put forward for the week. SSAs are expected to drive the bulk of activity as they have done it all but one week so far in 2025. That after last week we managed to beat the average weekly issuance estimate (EUR32.5bn), with the total finishing up at EUR34.1bn across the IG asset classes. Despite a valiant effort, US high-grade corporate borrowers failed to raise enough (USD10.1bn) at the back-end of last week to reach the average monthly ex-SSA estimate of USD170bn. With nine issuers raising USD7.05bn, issuance for the month finished at USD166.831bn. For more colour, see the IG WEEKLY WRAP UP. What to watch Monday (and the week) ** Key Data: SP Feb HCOB Manufacturing PMI (08:15), IT Feb HCOB Manufacturing PMI (08:45), FR Feb F HCOB Manufacturing PMI (08:45), GE Feb F HCOB Manufacturing PMI (08:55), EC Feb F HCOB Manufacturing PMI (09:00), UK Jan Mortgage Approvals (09:30), UK Jan M4 Money Supply (09:30), UK Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (09:30), EC Feb P CPI (10:00), US Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (14:45) and US Feb ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid (15:00) ** Key events/speakers: Fed’s Musalem speaks (17:35) ** Auctions: No major term auctions scheduled for Monday 3rd March ** Viewpoint - The week ahead: - US President Trump delivers speech to joint session of Congress. Powell speaks (Friday) - US February manuf (Monday), services (Wednesday) ISM. February Employment Report (Friday) - EMU prelim February CPI (Monday). ECB should cut 25bp (Thursday). New staff forecasts - China’s NPC starts/government’s main quantitative targets delivered (Wednesday) All times GMT

It is the US Thanksgiving holiday today & cash treasury markets; stock exchanges & open outcry pits are closed but equity & debt futures are open for a shortened electronic session (close 18.00GMT). Of course, US market participants will be out for the day (and many will be absent from desks tomorrow too) for Thanksgiving Day celebrations. There is a convenient expectation amid some traders that activity could grind to a halt during this period, but of course occasionally these inevitably thinner conditions can work to exacerbate moves, particularly on a theoretically big breaking news item. Still, the USD starts the day a touch firmer after Wednesday's barrage of mostly as forecast US data (Q3 GDP, core PCE). To recap matters from Wed, the headline PCE Price Index climbed in Oct as expected, printing +2.3% Y/Y (BBG median +2.3%; Sep +2.1%), putting the gauge at a high not seen since Aug '24. The core gauge also ticked higher to print +2.8% Y/Y (BBG median +2.8%; Sep was +2.7%). Meanwhile, the second estimate of the Q3 GDP came in as expected, growing at a solid 2.8% Q/Q (BBG median +2.8%; prior +2.8%), supported by consumer spending and business investments. S&P500 ended 0.4% lower but the futures are up 0.1% ahead of the EZ open & Chinese indices softer in late trade. Nikkei hit a 1mth low then traded 0.9% in the black while Bitcoin hit a 3-day high o/night then softened. Dec24 Bunds have added 15 ticks to 134.12 vs an 8-week peak at 134.33 yesterday. Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline No new additions to pipeline. On the Radar It’s been a fairly quiet week in CEEMEA so far, with just the one deal having landed this week, as US markets shut for the Thanksgiving public holiday today (November 28). The Kingdom of Bahrain, acting through the Ministry of Finance and National Economy, rated B+ (stable) by S&P and B+ (stable) by Fitch, has now priced its USD1.25bn Reg S fixed ling 7yr Senior Unsecured Sukuk at 5.875%. That’s in from the 6.25% area IPTs after attracting over USD3.50bn in final demand, excluding JLM interest. Priced Deals Date Issuer Ccy Amount (m) Coupon Maturity Yield Spread IPTS to Pxd Book size (m) Coverage NICs 27-Nov Republic of Bahrain USD 1250 5.875 05/06/2032 5.875 -37.5 3500 What to watch on Thursday In CEEMEA, Polish final 3Q GDP (09GMT) and S. African PPI (09.30GMT) is on tap. An empty agenda in the US with markets closed for Thanksgiving. Central bankers expected to speak today include only the ECB’s Villeroy, Knot & Lane Wider market Sentiment USD Index at 106.241 UST 2yr/10yr at 4.227%/4.263% Bund 2yr/10yr at 2.023%/2.157% Brent at $72.67/brl ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/CAD DOW DXY OPEN 1.1021 142.50 1.3051 0.6684 1.3572 +124.75 101.68 HIGH Closed LOW @ CLOSE 1.1011 142.40 1.3022 0.6649 1.3595 40, 861.71 101.70 The ECB meeting is today's main event, with an overwhelming expectation that they will deliver their second 25bps cut of this cycle. Traders looking for clues to see if the ECB want to speed up their one a quarter rate cut paste, are likely to be left disappointed, with President Lagarde set to keep her options open and stress the central bank's data dependence. It will be interesting to see whether Lagarde makes any concessions to recent much slower inflation results or she continues to worry on stubbornly persistent price pressures, particularly in the services sector, where wages are still rising materially. Goldman Sachs have turned more dovish on the ECB, seeing sequential rate cuts after a further easing in December. They add that they have downgraded their Euro area growth outlook on the back of weakness in the manufacturing sector, especially in Germany, and greater skepticism that the 15% household savings rate will come down anytime soon. The biggest influence on Eur/Usd today could well be a massive option expiry at 1.1000 for nearly Eur 3.3bln. Usd/Jpy enjoyed a minor bid overnight, helped in part by the first slowing in Japanese PPI in eight months in August at 2.5% y/y vs the 2.8% y/y forecast and 3.0% y/y result in July. Meanwhile, BOJ Board Member Tamura indicated that the central bank needs to raise its benchmark rate more aggressively than many economists have been expecting, noting that the neutral policy rate in Japan is 1% or higher. Sweden's CPIF inflation gauge fell sharply to 1.2% y/y in August from 1.7% prior and below the 1.4% estimate. The Riksbank's forecast, issued in June, was for a 1.7% print. Nordea suggested that a 50bps rate cut from the Riksbank is again a possibility after prices rose at the lowest pace in almost four years in August. The bank said that if the Swedish economy continues to be weak, and inflation remains below the central bank’s 2% target, it could open up for new board member Seim to vote in favor of a larger cut than the traditional quarter-point increments that most economists expect going forward. In the UK, the RICS said that the UK housing market is showing signs of picking up after the Bank of England rate cut. Goldmans also turned more dovish on the BoE and now expect the central bank to move to consecutive rate cuts starting in November. US data today includes PPI and jobless claims updates, while we also receive the Q2 household change in net worth. As well as ECB President Lagarde's post meeting presser, we should also hear from the SNB's Jordan. ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

The Dollar soared to a 3-month high of 105.221 as Trump trades sweep across global markets as the key swing states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia Narrows Vice President's Harris' path to victory. The Republicans also took control of the senate after flipping seats in West Virginia and Ohio. Treasuries are just off session lows heading into European hours, having cheapened sharply across the session on abovementioned themes as well, sending yields across the curve to their highest seen since at least the beginning of Aug, with the long end of the curve seen leading the cheapening move from then. This has seen the USD/JPY advance to a 14-week high, S&P500 futures rally to a 12-day peak & Bitcoin surge 7.2% to a new record apex of $75005.1. The US 10yr yield is around 4.424% compared to an overnight and 18-week peak of 4.465% Late yesterday, China said it would maintain an accommodative monetary stance. Asian equities are mixed with the Hang Seng down -2.70% and CSI 300 down -0.50% while the Nikkei closed 2.61% higher. Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline No fresh additions to the pipeline. On the Radar Pipeline activity remains subdued as the US presidential election results are finalised with Doland Trump likely to secure victory of both the House and the Senate. Still on the sidelines remains, Trans-Oil Group, a leading agro-industrial holding in Central and Eastern Europe, operating in Moldova, Romania and Serbia, commenced a GIC on Monday (October 28) and a series of investor calls on Tuesday (October 29) to advertise a USD-denominated Reg S senior secured guaranteed 5NC2 Eurobond offering by Aragvi Finance International DAC (a wholly owned subsidiary of the Group). TOG has mandated Citi, ING and Oppenheimer as Joint Global Coordinators and Joint Bookrunners and Raiffeisen Bank International and UniCredit as Joint Bookrunners The notes have an expected rating of B+ by Fitch and B by S&P. In addition, the Group (acting via Aragvi Finance International DAC as the Offeror) announced an invitation to holders of its outstanding USD500mn 8.45% Notes due 29 April 2026 (the “Notes”) to tender any-and-all of the Notes for cash, and together with the tender offer, concurrently consent to allow for the mandatory early redemption of the Notes. Priced Deals No new priced deals. What to watch on Wednesday In CEEMEA, today’s key event involves the Poland central bank rate decision, whereby rates are expected to remain steady at 5.75% after headline inflation accelerated to its highest level in October (preview here). Also due is Czech Industrial/Construction output & Trade Balance (8GMT) In the US, MBA Mortgage Applications (12GMT). Central bankers expected to speak today include only ECB’s Vujcic, Lagarde, Guidos and Villeroy. Wider market Sentiment USD Index at 103.816 UST 2yr/10yr at 4.245%/4.406% Bund 2yr/10yr at 2.176%/2.375% Brent at $74.45/brl ---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

This year's fall in activity came despite what was another bumper year for ESG corporate supply which tallied EUR89.02bn, just shy of last year's record-breaking EUR92.17bn. That means ESG supply accounted for some 35.99% of 2022's overall corporate haul, compared to 27.93% in 2021 (something we will look at in more detail later in the week). The slowdown in the corporate arena contributed to what was a more measured year on the whole for euro bond activity with EUR1.22tn having priced across all asset classes in 2022, down from the EUR1.39tn in 2021 and 2020's all-time high of EUR1.48tn. As previously alluded to, it is not hard to find reasons why absolute volumes were down this year – not least geopolitical events and in particular the Russian attack on Ukraine which started toward the end of February and put pressure on global assets. That combined with ongoing Covid-19 cases and associated lockdowns (especially in China) fanned growth worries, whilst focus has also been on global central banks hiking rates to counter inflation. Another reason for the reduction in corporate supply is due to the fact that many corporates were still sitting on decent cash piles having made hay while the sun was shining, and locking in funding during prior years. With all-in costs also rising, some companies were also put off hitting the bond market this year, with them either finding alternative sources of funding or deciding to wait for costs to come down. March stands out in stop-start year As shown by the chart below it was a very stop-start year for activity with January getting 2022 off to a typically active start where the EUR35.1bn to price was just short of 2021's record-breaking Jan haul of EUR35.7bn. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February meant that conditions were far from ideal and resulted in the slowest February for the asset class since 2018. February wasn't the only month to see lower volumes this year, with April (lowest since 2017), June (2016), July (2008), October (2018), December (2018) and even the usual frenetic month of September (2015) seeing long-term lows. The latter came after some issuers decided to make the most of what was a favourable tone in August and break the usual summer slumber early. The monthly haul of EUR13.45bn ranked as the fourth largest August total on record behind 2018, 2019 and 2021. Taking the accolade for the biggest volume month this year though was March (like it did in 2021), with the backlog caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine unclogging as a host of borrowers tapped the single currency and made the most of what was a relatively solid backdrop and healthy investor appetite for paper. March's total for the corporate asset class finished at EUR43.85bn, to rank it as the third biggest March on record for the sector, with only 2016 (EUR50.38bn) and 2020 (EUR49.1bn) seeing more paper. That was propelled by the w/e 25-March where sixteen corporates printed a total of 34 separate tranches worth a combined EUR24.05bn to make it the third largest volume week for the asset class ever, having only been beaten by the w/e 15-May-2020 (EUR26.55bn) and w/e 3-Apr-2020 (EUR39.65bn). With December being typically uneventful for the asset class, just one deal has crossed the tape in the form of ELO's EUR650m 6yr on the 1st of the month, resulting in the earliest close for euro corporate market since 2018.