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There’s an old saying, “You’ve got to spend money to make money,” and that’s been the premise that some of the world’s largest companies have been following when it comes to AI. Now the question is whether or not it was worth it. In the long run, sure, but does the means justify the end in the near term? That’s what had the market worried about today as investors anxiously awaited market darling, Nvidia’s quarterly earnings results. The poster child for the AI revolution is seen as the key to the continued bull market in high tech and all things AI-related.It appears that traders erred on the side of caution ahead of the earnings report, paring positions in semi-conductors and other tech names just in case the company doesn’t live up to the hype, since, like GM years ago, the way Nvidia goes, so goes the tech market. The Nasdaq closed the session 199 points lower (-1.12%), Nvidia (-2.87%) dragging the index lower. Investors will be paying particular attention to the delivery schedule for the company’s new Blackwell chip, and an update on the demand for AI.But it wasn’t just tech that took it on the chin today. Ahead of the release, the Dow ended the day lower by 159 points, falling far from its all-time high close last night, while the S&P500 fell 0.6%, also dragged down by weakness in the tech sector. Also weighing on the markets today were comments from Goldman Sachs’ head of asset allocation who said he was concerned about the market’s swift rebound from the rout earlier this month – the S&P500 fell 3% on August 5, its biggest one-day drop in two years."What’s concerning now is how quickly the market has gone back to where we were before ... but certainly that shows that we are sadly nearly back to the same problem we were at a month ago,” said Christian Mueller-Glissmann. “What I would say is the good news is while the S&P is back to where we were before, the complacency isn’t. We’re not at the same kind of extreme bullish sentiment and positioning,” he added.As for the Treasury market, which survived another auction - $70bln 5yr - that was well received, still saw yields back up a bit. Needless to say, the complex didn’t benefit from the sell off in the equity markets, Where did all the money go, if not into safe haven assets? How about cash? The benchmark 10yr note yield edged 1bp higher to close at 3.84%, while the long bond was unchanged on the day at 4.13%. However, the 2yr note saw its yield jump 7bp, closing at 3.90%, inverting the 2yr/10yr curve (-07bp) once again after a brief reprieve yesterday.In the meantime, we just may have seen the last of ex-SSA issuance for the month of August, as no deals were priced today making it the fifteenth “zero” issuance day of the year – there were 32 last year. As a matter of fact, we may not see another deal of any kind over the last two days of the month. That left ex-SSA issuance for the month at $106.995bln, $3bln shy of the highest monthly estimate of $110bln. This August marks only the fourth time in history that ex-SSA issuance has surpassed the century mark and ranks this month as the fifth busiest ex-SSA issuance month of the year.No, today belonged solely to the SSA market, with four deals - Province of Quebec ($2bln 10yr global notes), Export Development Canada ($1.75bln 3yr notes), Oesterreichische Kontrollbank AG ($1bln 5yr global notes) and The Republic of the Philippines ($2.5bln 3-pt deal) – combining to raise $7.25bln. That brought overall (SSA-inclusive) issuance to $135.145bln for the month, far and away more than the Street was expecting – the average estimate came in at $100bln, while the highest estimate was calling for $115bln. It also brought overall issuance for the year to $1.410.258bln, roughly $10bln shy of the average annual overall estimate of $1.420.000bln.September alone has averaged $166bln in overall issuance over the past 10 years, so it’s a foregone conclusion that will surpass that in the next week or so. Furthermore, we only need $139.7bln between now and the end of the year to reach the highest yearly overall estimate of $1.550.000bln, so that too should fall by the wayside, maybe as soon as the end of next month. That would make this year the fifth busiest overall issuance year on record. No, we haven’t adjusted for inflation..Aa2/AA-/AA-Province of Quebec Canada (Q)$2bln [Province of Quebec Canada] (Q) 10yr (9/5/34) SEC registered global notes. Aa2/AA-/AA-. BofA/HSBC/NBC/RBC/SCOT. Denoms 5k x 1k. S/D 9/05 (SSA)IPT(s)SPREAD SETLAUNCHEDPRICEDSOFR MS+90 areaSOFR MS+88$2bln 9/5/34 SOFR MS+88$2bln 4.25% 9/5/34 99.798 4.275% T+45 (SOFR MS+88) (TSY 3.875% 8/15/34)BOOKS:$5.9blnNIC(s):N/ACOMP(s):N/A.Baa2/BBB+/BBBRepublic of the Philppines (PHILIP)$tba [Republic of the Philppines] (PHILIP) SEC registered senior unsecured 3-pt (5.5yr (3/5/30), 10.5yr (3/6/35) notes & 25yr (9/5/49) "sustainability bonds"). Baa2/BBB+/BBB. BNP/CITI/GS/HSBC(B&D)/JPM/MS/SCB/UBS. Joint sustainability structuring banks: HSBC, SCB/UBS. UOP: (5.5yr & 10.5yr) General budget financing (25yr) General budget financing and to finance/refinance assets in line with the Republic’s sustainable finance framework. Denoms 200k x 1k. EuroMTF Listing. NY Law. Netroadshow: https://www.netroadshow.com/nrs/home/#!/?show=8fb9d207 (Recommended) or Visit www.netroadshow.com and enter the deal entry code: ROP2024 (not case-sensitive). Expected to price sometime today. S/D 9/05 (SSA)IPT(s)GUIDANCELAUNCHEDPRICED5.5yr +110 area5.5yr +75#$500m 3/5/30 +75$500m 4.375% 3/5/30 99.782 4.42% +75 (TSY 4.00% 7/31/29)10.5yr +125 area10.5yr +95#$1.1bln 3/6/35 +95$1.1bln 4.75% 3/6/35 99.608 4.978% +95 (TSY 3.875% 8/15/34)25yr 5.50% area25yr 5.175%#$900m 9/5/49 5.175%$900m 5.175% 9/5/49 100.00 5.175% +103.4 (TSY 4.625% 5/15/54 )BOOKS:$11.3blnNIC(s):N/ACOMP(s):N/A.Aaa/AAAExport Development Canada (EDC)$1.75bln [Export Development Canada] (EDC) 3yr (9/7/27) SEC registered senior unsecured notes. Aaa/AAA. BofA/BMO/CA-CIB/NBC/SCOT. Denoms 5k x 1k. S/D 9/05IPT(s)SPREAD SETLAUNCHEDPRICEDSOFR MS+33 areaSOFR MS+31$1.75bln 9/7/27 SOFR MS+31$1.75bln 3.75% 9/7/27 99.882 3.792% T+2.9 (SOFR MS+31) (TSY 3.75% 8/15/27)BOOKS:$3.5blnNIC(s):N/ACOMP(s):N/A.Aa1/AA+Oesterreichische Kontrollbank AG (OKB)$1bln [Oesterreichische Kontrollbank AG] (OKB) 5yr (9/5/29) SEC registered global notes. Aa1/AA+. BofA/BNP/DB/HSBC. Guarantee: Explicitly guaranteed by the Republic of Austria. Denoms 1k x 1k. S/D 9/05 (SSA).IPT(s)SPREAD SETLAUNCHEDPRICEDSOFR MS+44 areaSOFR MS+42$1bln 9/5/29 SOFR MS+42$1bln 3.75% 9/5/29 99.896 3.773% T+7.25 (SOFR MS+42) (TSY 4.00% 7/31/29)BOOKS:$3.5blnNIC(s):N/ACOMP(s):N/A.VOLIPT/PXXCVRDNICTRADING(TODAY) 08/2800000.00WK ENDING 08/30/241,550-536.4012.000.00WK ENDING 08/23/2422,650-273.995.04-2.96WK ENDING 08/16/2429,000-304.601.59-3.77WK ENDING 08/09/2444,970-315.044.73-3.02WK ENDING 08/02/2431,125-232.973.674.89WK ENDING 07/26/2431,504-263.003.00-1.52WK ENDING 07/19/2448,100-273.630.94-5.83WK ENDING 07/12/2418,250-272.853.46-1.30WK ENDING 07/05/245,350-304.956.00-9.00WK ENDING 06/28/2431,950-263.165.840.20WK ENDING 06/21/2431,400-243.093.140.50WK ENDING 06/14/245,750-244.093.900.70WK ENDING 06/07/2433,575-243.383.611.28WK ENDING 05/31/2419,700-223.183.38-1.34WK ENDING 05/24/2428,175-224.533.78-0.80WK ENDING 05/17/2428,100-222.872.65-1.14WK ENDING 05/10/2455,875-284.050.55-0.34WK ENDING 05/03/2419,000-325.892.74-7.60WK ENDING 04/26/2411,600-273.22-0.57-0.73YTD "ZERO DAYS"152023 / 32YTD FRNS DROPPED152023 / 3924-Aug106,995-29.354.504.13-2.6524-Jul125,504-26.264.802.47-2.9624-Jun102,675-24.603.284.080.7024-May136,050-29.893.511.93-0.8424-Apr106,680-23.934.071.65-1.1024-Mar142,909-25.003.821.460.5924-Feb199,425-26.513.931.89-1.1824-Jan195,620-25.663.732.70-2.2023-Dec24,025-23.943.045.59-2.9023-Nov100,725-25.503.957.40-5.1523-Oct81,880-22.373.456.06-0.3523-Sep128,015-24.603.404.59-1.9023-Aug68,100-27.163.674.40-1.96VOLIPT/PXXCVRDNICTRADING2024 YTD1,115,958-27.213.812.88-1.772023 YTD874,010-25.503.525.10-2.2024 VS '23 (% DIF)27.80%-1.710.29-2.220.43AUGAUG VOLLOW ESTAVE ESTHI ESTDIF (+/-)2024106,99580,00090,000110,00016,99520242024 YTDLOW ESTAVE ESTHI ESTDIF (+/-)YTD1,115,9581,100,0001,275,0001,350,000-159,042---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. 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EU stocks are set to get the new week off to a constructive start although one gets the sense we could be anywhere by the end of a week which delivers a barrage of earnings and key data while political developments are also very much on the markets radar.In particular, company news is huge this week where earnings come from 176 members of the S&P500 index and from 75 Stoxx600 firms.US index futures are also ahead this morning which comes after Nasdaq hit a fresh record high Friday with a 0.56% daily gain enough to just tip the index into positive territory for the week (+0.16%), making for a seventh straight weekly gain. The S&P500’s six-week winning run came to an end though following a slender 0.03% loss on the day and 0.96% loss on the week.Over in Asia, JPY is hitting 3-month lows this morning after the ruling LDP coalition failed to secure a majority at the weekend’s lower house election which now leaves PM Ishiba under pressure to resign while raising doubts over the pace of future policy tightening. Associated currency weakness has seen the Nikkei enjoy a knee-jerk rally but whether or not that strength holds on a longer-term basis remains to be seen.Elsewhere, Brent is down >4% after Israel’s retaliation against Iran at the weekend avoided oil facilities.Looking at the day in prospect and while the week delivers a flurry of key data releases, Monday’s session is devoid of top-tier data.On the supply front, the US brings USD69bn 2yr and USD70bn 5yr notes while The Treasury borrowing estimates will also be released later.Staying with the rates complex and it will be worth watching OATs this morning following news out after hours on Friday which saw Moody’s cut its outlook on France to negative citing fiscal concerns. That’s not a huge surprise though given that Moody’s current rating at Aa2 is a notch above S&P at AA-.For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing.Monday’s supply prospectsA combined average estimate of EUR19.5bn was put forward by survey respondents in our latest issuance poll, with a DSV six-part set to provide the backbone of that after a roadshow which concludes Tuesday. That after a busy week last week produced EUR23.3bn ex-HY supply with help from Italy's jumbo deal. See here for a full recap of last week’s activity.** Takko Fashion EUR350m 5.5yr securedThe Street doesn't appear to be overly optimistic over a pickup in high-grade US corporate issuance this week. The most bearish of the respondents to our weekly issuance poll are looking for only USD10bn in new debt to be raised this week as earnings continue. Even the bulls are looking for no more than USD25bn to cross the tape. On average, the Street thinks we'll see no more than USD18bn before the week is out. See the IG WEEKLY WRAP UP.What to watch today (and for the week)** Key Data: SP Sep Retail Sales (08:00), UK Oct CBI Retail Reported Sales (11:00), JN Sep Jobless Rate (23:30)** Key Events: ECB's Wunsch speaks (09:00)** Government Auctions: US to sell USD69bn 2yr (15:30) and USD70bn 5yr notes (17:00)** Earnings: 5 Stoxx600 and 10 S&P500 companies release results** Viewpoint: The Week Ahead- Fed in quiet period. UST borrowing estimates (Mon) & Quarterly Refunding Announcement (Wed)- US Sep Jolts/Oct cons confidence (Tue), Q3 GDP (Wed), Oct PCE/claims (Thu), Oct Employment Rpt (Fri)- UK Budget (Wed). Change in fiscal rules should allow for large ‘fiscal headroom’ increase- BoJ to hold & publish new forecasts (Thu)- EMU & Big Four Q3 GDP (Wed). German/Spanish Oct prelim CPI (Wed), EMU/France/Italy (Thu)All times GMT---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

Deals in Market TodayThere are currently two live deals in the market on Wednesday.Raiffeisenbank a.s., rated A2 (Stable) by Moody s, one of the leading banks in the Czech Republic and the largest network bank within Raiffeisen Bank International Group, has gone live with its EUR500m WNG Senior Non-Preferred Sustainable bond offering with a 6NC5 tenor in Reg S format at a final spread of m/s+195bps. That s in from the lower end of the m/s+200bps (+/-5) guidance and m/s+235bps area IPTs. The deal has attracted over EUR1.9bn in demand so far.The bank has mandated BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, Mediobanca, Natixis and Raiffeisen Bank International as Joint Bookrunners.The notes are expected to be rated Baa2 by Moody s.Leads have circulated the following comps:SNPRBIAV 6.000 09/2028-27 Baa2/ -/- I+176 4.87%RBIAV 4.625 09/2029-28 Baa2/ -/- I+190 4.89%RABKAS 1.000 06/2028-27 Baa2/ -/- I+159 4.73% GreenRABROM 7.00 10/2027-26 Baa2/ -/- I+176 5.04.% SustainableCESSPO 0.500 09/2028-27 BBB+/ -/A I+153 4.64% GreenCESSPO 4.824 01/2030-29 BBB+/ -/A I+160 4.56%SPRABHUG 5.15 05/2030-29 Baa3/-/- I+219 5.12% GreenTATSK 4.971 04/2030-29 A3/ -/- I+192 4.85% GreenRBACRO 7.875 06/2027-26 Baa3/ -/- I+146 4.82%Gulf International Bank B.S.C. ( GIB ), rated A3 by Moody s (with a positive outlook) and A- by Fitch (with a stable outlook) and 97.2% indirectly owned by the Government of Saudi Arabia through the Public Investment Fund, has now gone live with its USD 5yr (Jun-2029) Reg S fixed rate senior unsecured bond offering at the T+150bps area IPTs. This follows a Global Investor Call and a series of fixed income investor calls yesterday (May 28).GIB has mandated Standard Chartered Bank as a Global Coordinator, alongside Citi, Emirates NBD Capital, GIB Capital, and J.P. Morgan, together as Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners.Leads have circulated the following comps:IssuerRatingSizeMaturityCoupon (%)G-Spread (bps)DOHA FINANCE LIMITEDBaa1 / A500mn12/03/20295.250109CBQ FINANCE LTDA3 / A-750mn28/03/20295.375110COMMERCIAL BANK OF DUBAIBaa1 / A-500mn14/06/20285.31989ABU DHABI COMMERCIAL BNKA / A+650mn12/01/20295.50076BANQUE SAUDI FRANSIA- / A-900mn31/05/20284.75081New Announcements and Market WrapA new mandate on Wednesday morning, courtesy of Mashreqbank psc, the oldest local commercial bank in the United Arab Emirates and rated A (Fitch), A3 (Moody s) and A (S&P), all with Stable outlook, is advertising a benchmark USD RegS PNC5.5 AT1 note.A Global Investor Call along with a series of investor calls and physical fixed income investor meetings in London will commence tomorrow (May 30).Mashreq has mandated Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait (DIFC Branch), BofA Securities, Citi, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Kamco Investment Company, Mashreq and Mizuho as Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners.The National Bank of Kuwait S.A.K.P,the leading bank in Kuwait and the largest by assets, customer deposits and customer loans and advances, rated A1 / A / A+ (all stable, by Moody's / S&P / Fitch), is offering a benchmark USD-denominated Reg S senior unsecured 6NC5 Inaugural Green Notes that is fixed until the first call date and floating thereafter. Fixed income investor calls kick offed on Tuesday (May 28).NBK has mandated Citi, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, and Standard Chartered Bank as Joint Global Coordinators, along with Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Goldman Sachs International and National Bank of Kuwait as Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners.The direct link to the investor presentation recording can be found here.The Bank of Bahrain and Kuwait (B.S.C.),rated B2 by Moody's and B+ by Fitch (both with stable outlook), one of the leading onshore banks based in Bahrain and 52.2% owned by Bahrain and Kuwait government entities, is advertising a USD benchmark Reg S only senior unsecured 5-year bond offering.A series of physical fixed income investor meetings in London and virtual investor meetings in the Middle East, Asia and Continental Europe commenced on Monday (May 27) along with a Global Investor Call yesterday (May 28).The bank has mandated Bank ABC, Citi, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, J.P. Morgan, Mashreq and SICO B.S.C. as Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners.A link to the net roadshow can be found here.Still on the sidelines, HTA Group, Ltd(Helios Towers or the Company), an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Helios Towers Plc, a leading independent telecommunications infrastructure company in Africa and the Middle East rated B1 (Stable) by Moody s, B+ (Stable) by S&P and B+ (Stable) by Fitch, commenced a series of fixed income calls last week (May 20) for a 5NC2 RegS benchmark senior guaranteed notes offering.HTA has mandated BofA Securities, J.P. Morgan, Standard Bank and Standard Chartered Bank as Joint Global Coordinators, Absa and Rand Merchant Bank as Joint Bookrunners and Jefferies as Co-Manager.PipelineIssuerCcyBook ManagersSecurity DescriptionDescriptionCompsAt Ann.TodayRaiffeisenbankEURBNP, GS, Mediobanca, Natixis, RBRegSFinal Spread: 500m 6NC5 sustainable SNP @ m/s+195; bk 1.9bn+RBIAV (Sept-2028) RBIAV (Sept-2029) RABKAS (Jun-2028)I+176 I+190 I+159I+168 I+133 I+142GIBUSDSCB, Citi, ENBD, GIB, JPMRegSIPTs: 6yr senior secured bond at T+150bps areaDOHA (MAR-2029) CBQ (MAR-2029) BOD (JUNE-2028)G+109 G+110 G+89G+102 G-460 G+78MashreqbankUSDADCB, AABOK, BofA, Citi, ENBD, FADB, Kamco, Mashreq, MisuhoRegSInv calls for a PNC5.5 AT1 noteIGM: Roadshow Calendar EMEAPlease click here for the calendar.RECENT USD DEALSDateIssuerCcyAmount (m)CouponMaturityYieldSpreadIPTS to PxdBook size (m)CoverageNICs29-MayKSA Sukuk LimitedUSD12505.25009-06-20275.364T+60-20.0580029-MayKSA Sukuk LimitedUSD15005.25004-06-20305.249T+75-35.0620029-MayKSA Sukuk LimitedUSD22505.25004-06-20345.402T+85-20.0720023-MayMamouraUSD7505.29404-06-20345.294T+80-30.035004.6722-MayRepublic of LatviaUSD12505.12530-07-20345.252T+83-32.049003.9221-MayState of QatarUSD15004.75029-05-20344.818T+40-40.071004.7321-MayState of QatarUSD10004.62529-05-20294.739T+30-40.064006.4021-MayEI Sukuk Company LimitedUSD7505.43128-05-20295.431T+100-30.019002.5321-MayThe Republic of UzbekistanUSD6006.90028-02-20327.125-50.0290014-MayQNB Finansbank A.S.USD5007.25021-05-20297.375-37.514002.8014-MayTurk Telekomunikasyon ASUSD5007.37520-05-20297.375T+288.2-62.523004.609-MayAl Rajhi Banking and Investment CorporationUSD10006.375PNC5.56.375-50.032003.208-MayAldar Investment Properties Sukuk LimitedUSD5005.50016-05-20345.584T+110-30.019003.808-MayIsDB Trust Services No.2 SARLUSD20004.75415-05-2029SOFR+50-5.024001.208-MayVestel Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş.USD4509.75015-05-20299.8758251.837-MayAS Air Baltic CorporationUSD34014.50014-08-202914.500T+1213-50.08252.4330-AprAbu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company PJSCUSD12505.37508-05-20295.498T+80-35.055004.4030-AprAbu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company PJSCUSD12505.50008-05-20345.565T+90-35.055004.4025-AprArab Petroleum Investments CorporationUSD7505.42802-05-20295.428MS+95-20.011001.4725-AprTürkiye Cumhuriyeti Ziraat Bankası A.SUSD5008.99402-08-20349.000T+432.7-25.010002.0025-AprSisecam UK PLCUSD6008.6258NC38.625-62.519003.1725-AprSisecam UK PLCUSD5008.2505NC28.250-50.013002.6024-AprKIB LtdUSD3006.625PNC5.56.625T+195.3-37.56502.1724-AprOCP S.A.USD12506.75001-04-20346.962T+230-40.025002.0024-AprOCP S.A.USD7507.50001-04-20547.736T+295-35.017002.2724-AprJSC TBC BankUSD3000.103PNC5.510.25023-AprEmirate of Abu DhabiUSD17504.87530-04-20294.966T+35-35.057003.2623-AprEmirate of Abu DhabiUSD15005.00030-04-20345.044T+45-40.062004.1323-AprEmirate of Abu DhabiUSD17505.50030-04-20545.615T+90-35.056003.2019-AprFord Otomotiv Sanayi A.SUSD5007.12525-04-20297.125T+244.3-52.522004.40RECENT EUR DEALSDateIssuerCcyAmount (m)CouponMaturityYieldSpreadIPTS to PxdBook size (m)CoverageNICs23-MayEPH Financing InternationalEUR5005.87530-11-20296.049M+310-30.016003.207.522-MayRomaniaEUR14005.62530-05-20375.686M+290-30.029002.0722-MayRomaniaEUR18005.25030-05-20325.326M+255-30.035001.9421-MayThe Republic of UzbekistanEUR6005.37529-05-20275.37537.5200016-MayAS LHV GroupEUR3005.37524-05-20285.441M+240-60.013004.3314-MayRaiffeisen Bank ZrtEUR3005.15023-05-20305.150M+257.9-50.018006.0023-AprTatra BankaEUR3504.97129-04-20304.971M+210-50.022006.2925-MarNova KBMEUR3004.7504NC34.850M+190-45.020006.6720-MarPKO Bank PolskiEUR5004.5004NC34.596M+160-40.013002.6014-MarRepublic of TurkeyEUR20005.8752030-05-216.125M+340.5-37.513-MarRepublic of SloveniaEUR5003.0002034-03-103.191M+58-7.031006.20013-MarVUB BankaEUR5003.2502031-03-203.317M+70-15.025005.00-76-MarBGKEUR10004.0002032-03-134.034M+140-20.048006-MarBGKEUR10004.3752039-03-134.500M+185-20.048005-MarRepublic of CroatiaEUR15003.3752034-03-123.421M+80-30.082505.50027-FebSlovak RepublicEUR30003.7502034-03-063.780M+100-15.060002.001015-FebRepublic of RomaniaEUR20005.3752031-03-225.394M+270-35.065003.25-515-FebRepublic of RomaniaEUR20005.6252036-02-225.734M+300-45.0100005.00-56-FebLithuaniaEUR15003.5002034-02-133.607M+90-10.041002.732.5OTHER RECENT DEALSDateIssuerCcyAmount (m)CouponMaturityYieldSpreadIPTS to PxdBook size (m)CoverageNICs21-MayThe Republic of UzbekistanUSZ300000000000016.62529-05-202716.62512.5400000000000018-AprSlovak RepublicCHF3251.52310-05-20281.523M+4518-AprSlovak RepublicCHF3101.91510-05-20341.915M+704-AprDevelopment Bank of KazakhstanKZT100000013.00015-04-202713.250-12.52000002.0020-MarLuminor BankSEK5003ms+2252027-03-273ms+225-12.59001.8018-MarPKO Bank HipotecznyPLN10003mw+552028-03-223mW+55-5.017001.707-DecBanca Comerciala RomanaRON5007.5506NC5ROMGB+100-5.016-NovRepublic of PolandJPY87002.4102043-11-202.410M+95-2.516-NovRepublic of PolandJPY102001.7502033-11-221.750M+780.516-NovRepublic of PolandJPY665000.9302026-11-200.930M+552.58-NovMamouraAED7505.6502028-11-085.650-15.013002.1325-OctPKO Bank HipotecznyPLN7503mW+782026-10-023mW+78-7.08001.066-OctRepublic of UzbekistanUZS425000016.2502026-10-1216.250-12.54400001.04To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. 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IGM Global Credit Snapshot - June 202314 July | By Gavin Kendrick

EUR/USDUSD/JPYGBP/USDEUR/JPYEUR/GBPAUD/USDUSD/CADOPEN1.1117145.631.3021161.900.85370.67441.3615HIGHLOWCLOSE1.1110145.601.3035161.760.85210.67451.3628EUR/USD continues to power higher through the 1.1100 mark as specs eye quicker Fed cuts compared to the ECB, with this week's Jackson Hole event still viewed as the likely catalyst for a bullish yield play.Note, the yield spread between US and German 2-year bonds hit its narrowest since mid-2023 earlier this month. After widening somewhat again, it hit a two-week low on Aug. 20, data compiled by Bloomberg show.Yesterday's data also spurred EUR gains after the ECB Current Account for June came in at Eur 50.5bln, a record high. Meanwhile in its monthly report, the Bundesbank stated that robust German wage growth isn't abating and will likely keep inflation high. Note, the crucial ECB Negotiated Wages Indicator for the Eurozone in Q2, is set for release on Thursday.USD losses were otherwise spurred after the Philadelphia Fed Non-manufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated a decline in firms' assessment of general business activity for August, while the Fed's Bowman said that should disinflation proceed "sustainably" towards the 2% target, rate cuts could be considered.EUR/USD is thus running above 1.11 for the first time since December - and some suggest there could be more to go as net short positions held by leveraged traders are yet to be unwound.Overnight, China’s central bank set its daily reference rate for the yuan broadly in line with expectations for the first time in more than a year, a sign it’s loosening its tight grip for the managed currency.Japan’s exports rose at a faster pace in July, largely reflecting the yen’s drop to a 38-year low last month. The Bank of Japan also released a pair of research papers highlighting the persistence of inflationary pressure in the economy, indicating there is still a case to be made for another interest rate hike.This session, UK public sector net borrowing provides the early data, while the ECB’s Panetta speaks at 12gmt.In the US, the BLS releases preliminary annual payrolls benchmark revisions. Markets are primed for the fact that the US employment situation is less buoyant than originally seen - there could be up to one million jobs vanishing.MBA Mortgage Applications are also due, while the FOMC minutes are out tonight.---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

EUR/USDUSD/JPYGBP/USDEUR/JPYEUR/GBPAUD/USDUSD/CADOPEN1.1015142.791.3047157.300.84410.66901.3570HIGHLOWCLOSE1.1010141.431.3014155.730.84600.66351.3610EUR/USD takes centre stage today.Trading near the bottom of its recent 1.1155 - 1.1002 range, the ECB is widely expected to lower its key rate by -25BPs to 3.5%, but it’s expected to deliver minimal guidance on the pace and extent of further action with inflation not yet fully defeated.It will be interesting to see whether Lagarde makes any concessions to recent much slower inflation results or she continues to worry on stubbornly persistent price pressures, particularly in the services sector, where wages are still rising materially.Once again USD/YEN enjoys a surge of dip demand, tentatively bottoming at Nakagawa's inspired 140.71 low yesterday to a rebound high of 142.95 overnight even as BOJ Board Member Tamura indicated the Bank needs to raise its benchmark rate more aggressively than many economists have been expecting, noting that the neutral policy rate in Japan is 1% or higher. However, perhaps there was some negative YEN response to the first slowing in Japan PPI in eight months in August at 2.5% y/y vs the 2.8% forecast and 3.0% result the month previous.Also today and at the top of the hour is the Swedish CPI report for August. CPIFis seen at 1.4% y/y vs 1.7% the month previous, with CPIF ex-energy staying at 2.2% y/y. The data is unlikely to derail the Riksbank’s easing plans as price gains will likely remain well contained below the 2.0% target rate into 2025.On a key day, can EUR/SEK continue to hold above its 200-dma, at 11.4007 last?In the second half, US PPI and initial claims lead.PPI should follow a similar path to CPI, with 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y estimates, with the core also expected unchanged at 2.4% y/y. Airfare prices continue to weigh, but health care is expected to stay sticky, particularly in October and likely adjustments to Medicare reimbursement rates. Claims are seen unchanged at 227k.Note SNB's Jordan is a scheduled speaker, this afternoon, too.Elsewhere, all US stock futures are small in the green at the time of writing, led by the +0.2% NASDAQ.---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

Green bonds lead a year of record ESG supplyIt was also another very busy year for ESG supply where banks raised a record EUR51.55bn via non-covered single currency paper, continuing the general upward trend which has held since sales began in 2015.Overall, ethical debt sales accounted for 23.6% of all supply in the asset class, just topping to the 23.3% share achieved in 2021.As the race to decarbonise portfolios continued, it was once again the ever dominant green segment which led ethical supply from banks, accounting for 85.4% of all ESG paper.The increased dominance of green bonds came in contrast with falling supply via both social and sustainable paper, while there was no issuance of SLB paper at all.

The DXY USD Index has lost just over -1.0% in July so far, losing its 105.00-plus status in the process.And see table above, the USD looks a mid-ranking performer this month so far, losing most ground vs the intervention and more hawkish BOJ fuelled YEN. With risk appetite at times fragile and some fairly heavy stocks losses later in the month the USD gained most vs Scandi FX and the commodity bloc amid global growth worries.BarclaysFrom the UK bank's perspective, their proprietary month-end rebalancing model indicated Thursday a weak USD buying signal by month-end, with a moderate signal on USD/JPY due to significant YEN appreciation MTD.Barclays goes on the confluence of mixed US data, renewed focus on the US election and a fairly weak earnings season has triggered sharp FX moves in the course of what looks like a broad positioning squeeze. Bond markets have rallied across the board as Fed easing is brought forward. At the same time, equity markets are in the midst of a sizable correction due to earnings misses and sector rotations. On net, Barclays continue the large market cap in US equity markets is offsetting hedging flows on the margin, inducing the model to produce a weak USD-buying signal against majors.The exception is YEN, where significant and sharp appreciation in recent days increases rebalancing needs/Dollar buying at month-end.Barclays, however, caveat that such a moderate USD-buying flow may extend to other pairs should US equity markets continue to sell off rapidly. Besides, their sentiment index indicates that USD sentiment has turned more neutral since last week, which could also suggest a relatively stable USD into the upcoming Fed meeting and key US data releases later in the week.BofAThanks to the investment house who write from broader trends in equity markets, it suggests this will be positive USD month-end given the relative underperformance vs European equities in particular. USD buying for month end due to equity market weakness last occurred in April against the backdrop of the geopolitical shock.BofA continue with a focus on CHF, saying mixed signals from equity and FI but bias for marginal USD buying vs CHF into month-end. The well followed US firm suggest July traditionally is a strong month for CHF buying on strong equity performance. Their bias is to go with any USD/CHF buying momentum, with August a good USD/CHF month and SNB on track to deliver more cuts.French bankVia contacts, we hear that CA see the USD as neutral, but their corp flow model suggests EUR buying.MorePlease look out for month-end related reports on these pages ahead of Wednesday's window.The tech viewAttempting to extend rally from 103.650 (17 Jul low) toward 105.208 (9 Jul high), although the 50-DMA near 104.890 may be in the wayA relapse ahead of 105.208 could send USD falling toward 103.567/ 103.172 (50% retrace of 100.617-106.517 rally/21 May higher low)The USD is somewhat vulnerable beneath 106.130 (26 Jun high) but above 106.517 (16 Apr YTD high) exposes 107.348 (3 Oct 2023 peak)---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free demo of the service today..

The initial focus for European players this morning is on unpacking Nvidia’s Q2 earnings update, following which the AI darling’s stock is down after hours despite a beat on revenue, EPS and Q3 revenue guidance. That reaction has prompted a degree of head-scratching although seems likely to be a reflection of overly lofty expectations and excessively bullish positioning in a stock that has already rallied over 150% this year.Whatever the case, given its bellwether status, weakness has spread to other chipmakers overnight although whether that turns out to be another buying opportunity remains to be seen.Ahead of that, S&P500 (-0.60%) and Nasdaq (-1.12%) both closed in the red on Wednesday to leave the indexes a respective 1.4% and 6.4% beneath their record highs.Looking to the day in prospect and following a couple of lean sessions on the data front, attention turns to German & Spanish inflation for August where annual readings are expected to slow, thereby supporting the case for another rate cut by the ECB at its September meeting.US data highlights comprise US Q2 GDP and Jobless Claims.Central bank-speak will be headlined by ECB eco Lane and Nagel, joined by Fed’s Bostic, while auction supply comes from Italy and US.Otherwise to consider is that US attendance is likely to thin out from today ahead of the holiday weekend (Labour Day) meaning that Friday’s key PCE inflation reading is likely to be released into a thinner than usual market.Recall that we had a reminder in early August of how thin conditions can magnify volatility when a surprise hike by the BoJ on the final day of July triggered huge deleveraging and a 3-day/19.6% plunge in the Nikkei, the fallout from which rippled out across the globe.For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing.Thursday’s supply prospectsAn already busy week for the European bond market is not done yet, with another batch of issuers across the IG asset classes sat in the pipeline with single currency trades. Backing up Tuesday’s 22 euro tranches were another 24 lines on Wednesday, which was the fourth most single currency deals of any day so far this year. The day's overall volume came in at EUR26.95bn (versus EUR20.3bn on Tuesday), marking the sixth biggest day of 2024. It also means we have already matched the highest combined weekly average estimate of EUR47.5bn.** Swedish Export Credit EUR500m no grow 7yr green** Land NRW EUR 10yr LSA** Siauliu bankas exp EUR300m 4.25NC3.25 snr pref** CRH EUR 6yr covered** Lloyds Bank GmbH debut EUR500m no grow 5yr covered** IMCD EUR500m no grow Apr 2030s** CEZ EUR 7yr SLBWe just may have seen the last of ex-SSA US issuance for the month of August, as no deals were priced today making it the fifteenth “zero” issuance day of the year – there were 32 last year. That left ex-SSA issuance for the month at USD106.995bn, USD3bn shy of the highest monthly estimate of USD110bn. For more colour, see THE ENDGAME.What to watch today** Key Data: SP Aug P CPI (08:00), EC Aug Consumer/Industrial/Services Confidence (10:00), GE Aug P CPI (13:00) – with individual states reporting from 09:00, US Q2 S GDP Annualized (13:30), US Q2 S Personal Consumption (13:30), US Q2 S Core PCE Price Index (13:30), US Weekly Continuing/Initial Jobless Claims (13:30), US Jul Wholesale Inventories (13:30) and US Jul Pending Home Sales (15:00)** Key Events: ECB’s Lane (10:15) and Nagel (18:00) speak, as does Fed’s Bostic (20:20)** Auctions: IT to sell up to EUR7.75bn 2029 & 2035 BTPs, as well as EUR1.5bn 2032 FRNs (10:00). US to sell USD44bn 7yr Notes (18:00)** Earnings: 4 Stoxx600 & 8 S&P500 companies report---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

Markets are approaching today's ECB meeting in an ebullient mood where EU and US index futures currently point to further gains for stocks to follow yesterday's tech led move which propelled S&P500 (+1.18%) and Nasdaq (+1.96%) to record highs.Notably, with markets latching on to the weaker ADP employment data and seemingly discounting the strong ISM services print, the downward move in yields remained intact with the German 10yr yield closing lower for a third day while the US equivalent fell for a fifth straight day, making for a cumulative 33.6bps fall.Unsurprisingly, bullish sentiment spilled over into Asia today with chipmaker TSMC rising by up to 7.4% to a record high in the wake of Wednesday's surge in Nvidia to a fresh all-time peak.For today, the ECB takes centre stage where a 25bps reduction in the deposit rate to 3.75% is a foregone conclusion although strong guidance on future cuts looks unlikely given recent unfavourable inflation developments and the mixed rhetoric from ECB officials seen before the quiet period. New economic projections will be key. Ahead of the event, markets are pricing in just over 70bps of cumulative easing from the ECB by year-end.Given the intense focus on the ECB, today's European data releases may struggle to exert an impact whilst it's a relatively slow day for US data ahead of Friday's key employment report where weekly jobless are seen holding broadly steady.Auction supply picks up where Spain and France offer up to EUR18.75bn in mostly conventional paper which will provide a timely test of demand at lower yield levels following the multi-day rally seen in the EGB rates complex.For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing.Thursday's supply prospectsIG issuers are expected to stay away from the primary bond market given the distraction of the ECB verdict. However, HY borrower International Personal Finance is set to print a EUR341m 5.5NC2 line after a recent roadshow and add to the EUR31.07bn of euro paper that crossed the tape in the first three days of the week.** International Personal Finance EUR341m 5.5NC2 at 11% area IPTsFor the seventeenth week this year, syndicate desks around the Street underestimated the resolve of US high-grade corporate borrowers to push their financings across the finish line. In a week that was only supposed to produce on average USD25bn in new ex-SSA debt, a total of 29 borrowers raised USD26.175bn over a three-day span. For more colour see THE ENDGAME.What to watch today** Key Data: SP Apr Industrial Production (08:00), GE May HCOB Construction PMI (08:30), IT Apr Retail Sales (09:00), UK May S&P Global Construction PMI (09:30), EC Apr Retail Sales (10:00), US Q1 Nonfarm Productivity (13:30), US Q1 F Unit Labor Costs (13:30), US Apr Trade Balance (13:30) and US Weekly Continuing/Initial Jobless Claims (13:30)** Key Events: ECB Rate Decision (13:15) and President Lagarde Holds Presser (13:45). BoE Decision Maker Panel survey (09:30)** Auctions: SP to sell EUR5-6bn 2027, 2031 & 2054 Bonds, as well as EUR250-750m 2039 Linkers (09:30). FR to sell EUR10.5-12bn of 2034, 2038 & 2055 OATs (09:50)

It was a more orderly week for European bond issuance this week as uncertainty surrounding potential rate cuts and public holidays on both sides of the pond limited the potential issuance window.Indeed, nearly all this week's EUR7.85bn ( 6 issuers / 12 tranches) of euro IG/split-rated euro corporate paper came in a two-day period between Monday's UK Bank Holiday/US Memorial Day and the Corpus Christi holiday in parts of Europe on Thursday. The only other deal to price came Monday when Chinese borrower Seawings Co issued a EUR350m Reg S only 3yr.The final haul was above the average estimate of EUR6bn given in our weekly issuance poll but just short of the highest EUR8bn guess.It was also well behind the previous week's total where, as a reminder, 22 IG corporate single currency lines were issued via 17 names worth a combined EUR13.75bn, making it the sector's second-largest week of 2024.Source: IGMLowest average cover ratio of 2024 recordedAll this week's issuers were able to get their deals away safely enough but there were some signs of potential supply indigestion after the recent glut of issuance, with the monthly haul of EUR50.85bn marking the second busiest May on record for the asset class.Combined demand for the EUR7.5bn of paper on offer this week (excluding Seawings where no book was communicated) had peaked at EUR24.25bn but at the final count was EUR18.8bn with the final cover ratio of 2.59x the lowest seen YTD.The fall in orders came as issuers shaved an average 30.41bps off IPTs to print with an average NIC of 5.1bps.That large compression, combined with potential indigestion and a volatile broader market tone amid an uncertain rate outlook, resulted in the investor resistance seen this week. Going forward, this may require issuers to take a more pragmatic approach to ensure smooth execution.Linde and Medtronic go bigSeeing the most pricing resistance this week was Tuesday's sole transaction from Dublin-headquartered global chemicals company Linde plc.Offering its second three-part euro of the year, the company took EUR2.2bn out of the market via EUR750m 6yr, EUR750m 10yr and EUR700m 20yr tranches. That after the issuer printed a slightly larger EUR2.25bn (EUR700m 4yr, EUR850m 7yr & EUR700m 12yr) three-part as recently as Feb.Combined demand for the most recent transaction peaked at an impressive EUR6.25bn, but in a nod to a deteriorating risk tone on the day and after the borrower cut 30-37bps off IPTs to reoffer, final orders totalled just EUR3.4bn.Linde's longest 20yr line priced slightly inside fair value estimates on a EUR1.2bn book whilst the 6yr and 10yr lines attracted demand of EUR1.1bn apiece and offered final NICs in the region of 3bps and 5bps respectively.The bulk of issuance (EUR5.3bn) this week came Wednesday where leading the way was US borrower Medtronic with an even bigger EUR3bn no grow (EUR850m 5.5yr, EUR850m 12.5yr, EUR600m 19.5yr and EUR700m 29.5yr) four-part.Medtronic already had a reputation for issuing large single currency trades, having printed a EUR3bn four-part in Sep 2022, a EUR6.25bn six-part in Sep 2020, a EUR5bn six-part in Jun 2019 and an even bigger EUR7bn six-part in Mar 2019 with the latest another successful exercise.The new transaction saw combined demand last touted at EUR9.95bn from an earlier peak of EUR10.9bn after the borrower shaved between 25-30bps off IPTs and print with NICs ranging from 5-15bps.Medtronic's deal pushed the 2024 reverse yankee issuance haul up to EUR38.23bn and just short of last year's final EUR43.3bn. Whilst the reverse yankee pace is set to remain busy with a number of US companies having euro debt to refinance this year, we will have to go some to beat the all-time record of EUR99.08bn set in 2019. The busy year for reverse yankee issuance so far comes with a number of issuers having euro bonds to refinance in the near future.Out alongside Medtronic on Wednesday were European names LVMH (EUR850m short 6yr & EUR650m long 10yr two-part; 5bp NICs), ISS Global (EUR500m no grow 5yr; 5bp NIC) and HOWOGE (EUR300m 6yr social; 5bp NIC) which saw demand settle at EUR3bn, EUR1.35bn and EUR1.1bn from peaks of EUR4.2bn, EUR1.75bn and EUR1.15bn respectively.Summary of this week's EUR IG/split-rated corp trades:DateIssuerSize (EUR m)MaturityIPTs/Initial guidanceRe-offerIPT to Re-offer Pricing Differential (bp)NIC (bp)Books (EUR m)Final Cover Ratio (X)Peak Books (EUR m)27-MaySeawings (HK) Co. Limited35030-May-20274.6%a4.2%-40N/AN/AN/AN/A28-MayLinde plc75004-Jun-30m/s+85-90m/s+55-32.5311001.47185028-MayLinde plc75004-Jun-34m/s+105am/s+75-30511001.47200028-MayLinde plc70004-Jun-44m/s+145am/s+108-37-212001.71240029-MayMedtronic plc85015-Oct-29m/s+95am/s+65-30524002.82280029-MayMedtronic plc85015-Oct-36m/s+125am/s+95-30522502.65270029-MayMedtronic plc60015-Oct-43m/s+155am/s+130-251521003.50220029-MayMedtronic plc70015-Oct-53m/s+185am/s+155-30N/A32004.57320029-MayISS Global A/S50005-Jun-29m/s+130am/s+100-30513502.70175029-MayHOWOGE Wohnungsbaugesellschaft mbH (Social)30005-Jun-30m/s+125am/s+95-30511003.67115029-MayLVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton S.E85005-Feb-30m/s+75am/s+45-30520002.35240029-MayLVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton S.E65005-Oct-34m/s+95am/s+65-30510001.541800Aptiv to add to reverse yankee haulLooking ahead and next week looks set to be another compressed one for supply with the key ECB meeting on Thursday meaning the optimum issuance window looks to be Monday-Wednesday.Feedback from bankers we spoke to on Friday suggests that the pace of issuance will be similar to that of this week.One borrower known to be eyeing next week is Irish-American automotive technology supplier Aptiv PLC (Baa2/BBB/BBB) which will add the recent reverse yankee flurry.Aptiv this morning hired Barclays, BNP Paribas and J.P. Morgan Securities plc to arrange a series of European fixed income investor calls on Friday and Monday ahead of a EUR 12yr SEC-registered benchmark trade.That will mark the borrower's first single currency offering since it printed a EUR500m 1.6% Sep 2028 line in Sep 2016.Also announcing a mandate this morning was Swedish medical device company Molnlycke Holding AB (BBB-) with the issuer to hold calls Monday via BNP Paribas, ING, J.P. Morgan, and SEB as Joint Bookrunners for a potential EUR500m 10yr transaction comps here.The company has concurrently announced an any & all tender offer for its outstanding EUR500m 1.875% notes due Feb 2025 (ISIN: XS1564337993).Performance tracker of recent EUR IG/split-rated benchmark dealsIssuerDealRe-offer spread (m/s)Current i-spread (bid)Issue RatingMDT3.650% 10/29+65+63.5A3/AMDT3.875% 10/36+95+91.5A3/AMDT4.150% 10/43+130+125.5A3/AMDT4.150% 10/53+155+151A3/AISSDC3.875% 06/29+100+100.5Baa3/BBBLVMH3.375% 02/30+45+45.5Aa3/AA-LVMH3.500% 10/34+65+66Aa3/AA-LIN3.375% 6/30+55+57A1/ALIN3.500% 06/34+75+78A1/ALIN3.750% 06/44+108+110.5A1/AHOTGR4.250% 05/30+142+143.5BBB-EPEN5.875% 11/29+310+280BBB-/BBB-PHIANA3.750% 05/32+115+111Baa1/BBB+PNDORA3.875% 05/30+115+115Baa2/BBBMNDILN3.750% 05/32+95+94.5Baa1/A-ALOFP5.868% PNC5.25+292.8+266.5Ba2AIFP3.375% 05/34+62+62A2/AENEXIS3.500% 05/36+75+77AA-AMT3.900% 05/30+113+110.5Baa3/BBB-/BBB+AMT4.100% 05/34+140+140.5Baa3/BBB-/BBB+SCMNVX3.500% 05/26+25+9.5A1/ASCMNVX3.500% 08/28+55+48.5A1/ASCMNVX3.500% 11/31+75+72.5A1/ASCMNVX3.625% 11/36+93+91.5A1/ASCMNVX3.875% 05/44+124+123A1/AAKERBP4.000% 05/32+125+128.5Baa2/BBB/BBBTAP3.800% 06/32+103+100Baa2/BBBSAGAX4.375% 05/30+155+151.5Baa2AMCR3.950% 05/32+128+124Baa2/BBBAVINOR3.500% 05/34+80+85.5A1To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. 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Futures point to continued weakness for European stock indices this morning to follow on from weakness in the US (S&P500 -0.33% and Nasdaq -0.56% both fell) and a once again mixed bag over in Asia. The Nikkei shed -0.9% with major Chinese bourses bucking the trend as official PMIs came in marginally ahead of expectations and hopes still abound for the announcement of more stimulus packages in the coming week.The main talking points from Wednesday, from a US and global perspective, centred around the core PCE price index coming in a little above expectations and pointing to an incrementally slower-than-expected pullback in underlying price pressures. That could possibly add to worries around Friday's NFPs release, while the advance reading of Q3 GDP showed a slower pace of increase in the economy.However, inadvertently becoming the main attraction was the release of the UK's Autumn Budget. Bonds (especially Gilts) sold off heavily in the wake of Chancellor Reeve's budget release which showed UK taxes to rise by GBP40bn, with notable rises in taxes on capital gains and carried interest for private equity. Market positioning suggests this leaves the BOE with only 25bps to cut into year-end.The entire front end of the EGB complex, which had been underperforming before the budget announcements, saw yields spike wider with GER 2yr +11.78bp on the day whilst Gilts which had seen yields lower in the morning finished higher across the board.Economic releases of interest from a European perspective come this morning in the shape of French, Italian and Eurozone CPI figures, which will be scrutinised in the wake of higher than expected readings from German regions and at the national level just yesterday (+2.0% vs 1.8% exp).Later in the day and adding some colour on the same topic from the other side of the Atlantic is the latest update of the PCE Price Index.On the back of the huge swing in momentum yesterday for its outstanding bonds (10yr moved from -8bp to +3.7bp) the UK is today looking to sell GBP2.25bn of 2053 Gilts. A close eye will be kept on the results of that in light of increased borrowing announced by Reeves in her first budget.CB speak, with the Fed in blackout until 8th November, comes courtesy of the ECB's Escriva and Knot (who will be giving an on-stage interview at the Santander International Banking Conference).For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing.Thursday's supply prospectsThe euro pipeline is all but empty (just two HY names present) after a busy first half of the week which saw a combined EUR22.75bn. That was, of course, given a big shot in the arm by the well flagged M&A-driven six-part trade from Danish transport and logistics company DSV A/S on Wednesday which in the end totalled EUR5bn and marked the joint-largest euro corporate trade of 2024 (recap here).** SOMACIS EUR500m 7NC1 FRN at 3mE+450 area IPTs** Neinor Homes EUR300m 5.25NC2 green secured at mid-high 6% IP** New Development Bank USD 3yr green, price talk m/s +90 areaSix borrowers graced the US high-grade bond market Wednesday, two of which were funding recent acquisitions, all combining to raise USD16.9bn in the busiest issuance day since 19 borrowers descended on the market the day after Labor Day. Marsh & McLennan started things off with an early morning announcement of a USD7.25bn 7-pt offering to help fund its acquisition of McGriff Insurance Services, LLC. That was followed by Waste Management, who began marketing a USD5.2bn 5-pt offering to partially fund its purchase of Stericycle, a global leader in medical waste management. For all the colour and a full update see THE ENDGAME.What to watch Thursday – Big day for bank earnings** Key Data: GE Sep Import Price Index (07:00), GE Sep Retail Sales (07:00), FR Oct P CPI (07:45), IT Sep Unemployment Rate (09:00), EC Oct P CPI (10:00), IT Oct P CPI (10:00), EC Sep Unemployment Rate (10:00), US Sep Personal Income/Spending (12:30), US Sep Core PCE Price Index (12:30), US Weekly Initial/continuing Jobless Claims (12:30) and US Oct MNI Chicago PMI (13:45)** Key Events: ECB’s Escriva (10:10) & Knot (11:35) speak** Auctions: UK to sell GBP2.25bn 2053 Gilts (10:00)** Earnings: 26 Stoxx600 & 49 S&P500 companies report. Former includes BBVA, BNP Paribas, Caixabank, Danske, Erste, Intesa Sanpaolo and Societe GeneraleAll times GMT---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

3pm BST | 8 October 2024

EUR/USDUSD/JPYGBP/USDAUD/USDUSD/CADDOWDXYOPEN1.0933156.381.29900.67371.3677+243.60103.80HIGHClosedLOW@CLOSE1.0932156.571.30050.67271.368541, 198.08103.81The Dollar remained under pressure overnight, after yesterday's fall in yields and the Trump currency comments, with Usd/Jpy at one stage slipping down to 155.38, its lowest level since Jun 7th. US 10 year yields have recovered from yesterday's dip below 4.15%, which has helped lift Usd/Jpy back above 156.00. Reuters reported that the latest BoJ data does not immediately show any evidence of intervention yesterday.Aussie Dollar longs will be concerned that despite the release overnight of the impressive Australian jobs report for June, the currency is still the worst performing G10 unit so far this week.50.2k jobs were created in June, with further good news coming from the fact that 43.3k of them were full time roles. The unemployment rate did tick up to 4.1% as expected, but that is only 0.6% above the record lows in 2022.The head of labor statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics pointed to the fact that the employment-to-population ratio and participation rate both rose by 0.1 percentage point to 64.2% and 66.9% respectively, which are both near their 2023 highs, as well as the continued high level of job vacancies as signs that the labor market remains relatively tight.The other major data update overnight came from the UK, where average earnings matched expectations by coming in at 5.7%.Today's main event is the ECB monetary policy decision, where an unchanged verdict is universally expected. The big question is whether the Bank's president Lagarde will hint at a reduction in September.US numbers include the Philly Fed survey and jobless claims.Fed speakers include, Goolsbee, Logan and after hours Daly.Noted Fed watcher Grep Ip at the WSJ argued that the Fed should cut rates later this month and not wait until September. He declared that if the Fed was truly data-dependent and trusted their own forecasts they would be comfortable cutting rates now, as accelerating inflation looks like a lesser risk than a weakening labor market.---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free demo of the service today.

Coming into this week, the respondents to our weekly high-grade issuance poll, on average, were looking for $35bln in new supply, with the estimates ranging from a low of $25bln, to a high of $41bln. Well, after eight investment grade borrowers raised a collective $7.1bln yesterday, we appear to be right on target.Granted, we do expect most of this week’s supply to come before the release of the August CPI (CPI (0.2% m-o-m, 2.6% y-o-y) tomorrow, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see issuance the following day. So, once again we could be relegated to just three trading sessions, much like last week. However, should CPI come in favorably, we could see a barrage of issuance on Thursday, despite the release of August PPI (0.1% m-o-m, 1.7% y-o-y) as would-be issuers look to raise relatively cheap capital to bolster their balance sheets should the data suggest the economy is slowing down a little too much.Yesterday’s haul brought ex-SSA issuance for the month to $87.675bln, and the year to $1.203.633bln – 27.7% ahead of last year’s pace and inching closer to that average yearly estimate of $1.275.000bln, with more than three months remaining. As expected, Nissan Motor Acceptance (3yr fixed and/or floaters and 5yr) and APA Infrastructure (10yr and 20yr notes) announced deals overnight, along with a 2-pt offering of 5.5yr and 10yr notes from CK Hutchison. We’ll still wait and see if Bungee Ltd, Oneok, and Helmerich and Payne join them after wrapping up investor calls yesterday.There are also five SSA offerings – Kommuninvest ($1bln 3yr notes), IADB (7yr global notes), IDB Invest ($750m 2yr global notes), Province of Ontario (5yr notes) and African Development Bank (5yr “social” bonds) on tap to price today. Overall (SSA-inclusive) issuance stands at $1.515.233bln for the year, 26.7% ahead of last year’s pace and a mere $40bln shy of the highest annual issuance estimate of $1.550.000bln.Investor demand has also been a driving force behind the flood of issuance this year. Last week, investors submitted orders totaling nearly $300bln (3.71x covered) for the 59 deals that came to market. On average, last week’s deals contracted 29.8bp from IPT/PX and priced with an average NIC of less than 3bp (2.48bp). Investors submitted orders of more than $27bln (3.87x covered) for yesterday’s deals, which contracted an average of 28.2bp from IPT/PX, and priced with an average NIC of 2.71bp.Be that as it may, in the runup to tomorrow’s CPI report, futures are indicating a rather muted open for the three major averages. This after all three major averages staged impressive rallies after last week’s drubbing. The Dow closed 484 points higher, erasing all of Friday’s losses, and then some, while the S&P500 (+1.16%) recovered a good portion of Friday’s selloff, although the Nasdaq (+1.16%), closed far from Friday’s -2.55% selloff.Treasury yields look a bit higher this morning after traders in the Treasury market seemed content to hold on to their positions ahead of the inflation-centric economic data releases, with yields virtually unchanged to a tad better yesterday. The benchmark 10yr note yield fell by 2bp to close at 3.70%, while the long bond dropped 3bp, closing at 4.00%. However, the 2yr note saw its yield edge 2bp higher to close at 3.68%, though the yield curve remained positive at 2bp.This morning, the benchmark 10yr note is trading 2bp higher at 3.72%, while the long bond yield is higher by 1bp at 4.01%, and the 2yr note yield was unchanged overnight at 3.68%. Corporate spreads are unchanged with the average high grade bond trading 99bp over comparable Treasuries.Traders in the Fed Funds futures market, while in full agreement that the Fed will cut interest rates later this month, are still at odds as to whether the health of the economy warrants a 25bp or 50bp cut., though the bias (73%) is leaning towards the former. However, they seem to think there’s a good chance (52.3%) that could be followed by a 50bp cut in November..2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 09/09 WEEK, SEPTEMBER & 2024 ESTIMATES.09/09 WKLO ESTAVE ESTHI ESTACTUALSEPLO ESTAVE ESTHI ESTACTUAL2024LO ESTAVE ESTHI ESTACTUALEX-SSA$25.0B$35.0B$41.0B$7,100EX-SSA$125.0B$137.0B$146.0B$87,675EX-SSA$1.100B$1.275B$1.350B$1,203,633OVERALL$35.0B$45.0B$50.0B$7,100OVERALL$140.0B$150.0B$165.0B$104,975OVERALL$1.350B$1.420B$1.550B$1,515,233.2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - RECENT MANDATES.ANNOUNCEDISSUERRATINGSMGRSCALLDEAL7-AugFARMERS INSURANCEBAA3/BBB+BOA/C/JPM/WFS7-Aug40NC30 SURPLUS NOTES3-SepIBKAA2/AA-ANZ/CA//HSBC/MIZ/MUFG5-SepSOCIAL BOND DEAL9-SepBUNGE LTDBAA1/BBB+BOA/BNP/JPM/MIZ/SMBC9-Sep9-SepONEOKBAA2/BBBBOA/BARC/GS/JPM/WFS9-Sep9-SepSP GROUPAA1/AA+BNP/MS23-Sep9-SepHELMERICH & PAYNEBAA1/BBB+GS/HSBC/MS/WFS9-Sep144A REG S DEAL.2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 09/10 CALENDAR.AMTISSUERMATRATINGSMGRTALK1000KOMINS27AAA/AAADANSKESMS+36750IDBNV27AA1/AA+/AAABNPSMS+35TBAAFDB29AAA/AAABOASMS+41TBAIADB31AAA/AAABARCSMS+52TBAONT29AA3/A+BNMOSMS+57TBANSANY27BAA3/BBB-CITISOFR+EQTBANSANY27BAA3/BBB-CITI+185 ATBANSANY29BAA3/BBB-CITI+215 ATBAAPAAU34BAA2/BBBJPM+195 ATBAAPAAU44BAA2/BBBJPM+215 ATBACKHH30A2/AHSBC+125 ATBACKHH34A2/AHSBC+145 A.2024 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 09/09 PRICINGS.ISSUERATINGSMGRSAMTCALLCPNMATSPRDTYPE09/09APTIV PLCBAA3/BB+BOA/BARC/BNP/C/DB/GS/JPM/SG/SMBC/SCB/TD/TSI/UNI/USB/WFS500NC56.87530YR6.875YI09/09APTIV PLCBAA2/BBBBOA/BARC/BNP/C/DB/GS/JPM/SG/SMBC/SCB/TD/TSI/UNI/USB/WFS550T+204.6505YR+118YI09/09APTIV PLCBAA2/BBBBOA/BARC/BNP/C/DB/GS/JPM/SG/SMBC/SCB/TD/TSI/UNI/USB/WFS550T+255.15010YR+148YI09/09APTIV PLCBAA2/BBBBOA/BARC/BNP/C/DB/GS/JPM/SG/SMBC/SCB/TD/TSI/UNI/USB/WFS550T+305.75030YR+178YI09/09PHILLIPS 66 COA3/BBB+BOA/BARC/GS/JPM/TD600T+155.2507YR+110I09/09PHILLIPS 66 COA3/BBB+BOA/BARC/GS/JPM/TD600T+204.95010YR+125I09/09PHILLIPS 66 COA3/BBB+BOA/BARC/GS/JPM/TD600T+255.50030YR+150I09/09PHILLIPS EDISON GROCERY CENTERBAA2/BBBBOA/BMO/JPM/USB/WFS350T+254.95010YR+145F09/09SIXTH STREET LENDING PARTNERSBAA3/NRBOA/BARC/BNP/SMBC600T+355.7505YR+230F09/09NATIONAL RURAL UTILITIESA2/A-MUFG/MIZ/TSI300NCSOFR+823YRFRNF09/09NATIONAL RURAL UTILITIESA2/A-MUFG/MIZ/TSI550T+104.1203YR+58F09/09NATIONAL RURAL UTILITIESA2/A-MUFG/MIZ/TSI150T+155.1505YR+73F09/09ERP OPERATING LPA3/A-BOA/BARC/DB/MS/USB600T+154.65010YR+100F09/09WISCONSIN ELECTRIC POWERA2/A-BMO/C/MIZ/MS/PNC/RBC300T+154.60010YR+90U09/09WISCONSIN ELECTRIC POWERA2/A-BMO/C/MIZ/MS/PNC/RBC300T+205.05030YR+108U8/1571008/157100---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. 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July closed with around EUR14.5bn of bonds placed with investors, which was up around 25% on June. Among that total, CLOs and RMBS led the way. CLOs accounted for 22 deals, and 12 of those were new issues (the rest being nine resets and one refi). July's tally of EUR5.2bn took the YTD new issue CLO total to EUR30bn. RMBS sales of around EUR4bn helped the YTD total to nearly EUR35bn and more than double the volume seen at the same stage in 2023. The auto market was more subdued, with just two deals printing.Please see the attached report for more: IGM_European_SF_Review_07_2024.pdf---- Subscribe to read more ----To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Start your free trial of the service today.

Overall EUR supply surges to an all-time record monthly high in January, led by SSA and FIG.APAC region witnesses early 2023 rush before slowing into Lunar New Year and earnings.US (ex-SSA) sees third busiest January ever, NICs come in below the 2022 full year average.

The DXY fell to a 9-day low late yesterday of 102.558 but has found support at the 102.600 handle.After hours yesterday the Fed's Bostic affirmed that a rate cut is coming but wants to see 'a little more data' and suggests there could be a cut by the year end of the economy evolves as expected.Bostic added that he wants to be “absolutely” sure to cut rates, noting that it will be very bad if they started easing but then have to pivot and hike rates again.In markets, S&P added 1.7% to a 12-day high while the futures are little moved ahead of the EZ open.Sep24 Bund futures traded in a 15-tick range o/night with a high at 135.04 (-2 ticks) vs an 8 day high at 135.08 on Tues & Sep24 US 10yr notes hit 113-22 (+2 ticks), matching yest's 8-day best.Fresh in the CEEMEA PipelineNo new deals in the pipeline.On the RadarAwaiting updates from The Republic of Slovenia, rated A3 (Stable) by Moody’s, AA- (Stable) by S&P, A (Stable) by Fitch and AA- (Stable) by JCR, who has filed Securities Registration Statement with the Japanese authorities for its potential JPY-denominated senior notes in Samurai format.The JPY Notes may be issued in the near future subject to market conditionsThe JPY Notes, if issued, are expected to be rated AA- by S&P and AA- by JCRTenors: 3yr / 5yr / 7yr / 10yrOne or more tranches may be dropped subject to issuer's preference and demand & each tenor may include Social Bond and/or Non-labelled bond tranches.Bookrunners include BNP Paribas, Nomura and SMBC Nikko.Priced DealsNo new priced deals.What to watch on WednesdayThe main events in CEEMEA today are Poland’s final CPI and 2Q GDP (8GMT), S. Africa's Business Confidence (9:30GMT) and Retail sales (11GMT) and Russia's weekly CPI (16GMT).In the US, CPI data is due (12:30GMT).No central bankers are scheduled to speak today.Wider market SentimentUSD Index at 103.118UST 2yr/10yr at 3.935%/3.847%Bund 2yr/10yr at 2.330%/2.180%Brent at $81.22/brl---- Subscribe to read more ---- To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.

Europe I Asia Pacific I U.S.I LatAM I CEEMEA I Global