[THE ENDGAME] : What Can I say?
I’m at a loss for words since “there was not much more for us to talk about. Whatever we had once was gone.” High-grade primary activity was limited to just two offerings today. Johnson Controls tapped its outstanding 4.90s of ’32 with another $20m, while Altlas Warehouse raised $1bln via a 2-pt offering of 3yr and 5yr notes.
That brought ex-SSA issuance for the week to $23.8bln, and with nothing expected to price tomorrow, just shy of the lowest weekly estimate of $25bln, as well as the lowest monthly estimate of the same. Investors didn’t appear all that enthused with today’s offerings which contracted only 17.7bp from IPT/PX, while building a combined book of $3.5bln (2.8x covered) and pricing with an average NIC of 5bp.
As for the general market, in the runup to tomorrow’s jobs report (220k) all three major averages retreated from the all-time record closes of last night, with the Dow lower by 248 points, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq both lost ground, closing lower by 0.19% and 0.18%, respectively.
Treasuries, on the other hand, regained their footing and closed on lower yields. The benchmark 10yr note yield fell 2bp to close at 4.17%, while the long bond also traded 2bp better at 4.33%. However, the yield on the 2yr note headed in the opposite direction, tacking on 2bp to close at 4.15%.
| Baa2/BBB+ | Johnson Controls International plc/Tyco Fire & Security Finance SCA (JCI) |
| $250m (WNG) [Johnson Controls International plc/Tyco Fire & Security Finance SCA] (JCI) SEC registered senior unsecured 4.90% 12/01/32 tap. Baa2/BBB+. BofA/USB. UOP: General corporate purposes, including the repayment or redemption of near-term indebtedness. MWC. Par call 3mos prior to mat. Denoms 2k x 1k. ISIN: US47837RAE09. S/D 12/10 (I) |
| IPT(s) | GUIDANCE | LAUNCHED | PRICED |
| +95 area | $250m (WNG) 4.90% 12/01/32 +77 | $250m (WNG) 4.90% 12/01/32 99.646 4.954% +77 MW T+30 (TSY 4.25% 11/15/34) |
| BOOKS: | $500m |
| NIC(s): | +05 |
| COMP(s): | JCI 5.500 04/19/29 $103.27 ~T+58 G+57 JCI 4.900 12/01/32 $100.06 ~T+71 G+75 JCI 3.125 12/11/33 $99.80 ~T+109 G+108 JCI 6.000 01/15/36 $107.73 ~T+90 G+87 |
| Baa3/BBB-/BBB- | Atlas Warehouse Lending Co LP] (ATWALD) |
| $1bln [Atlas Warehouse Lending Co LP] (ATWALD) 144a 3(c)(7) 2-pt (3yr (1/15/28) & 5yr (1/15/30)) senior unsecured notes. Baa3/BBB-/BBB-. BARC/BNP/JPM/MS. UOP: To fund assets, to pay related fees and expenses and for general corporate purposes, which may include the repayment of certain of its indebtedness. MWC. Par call 1mos (3yr & 5yr) prior to mat. Denoms 250k x 1k. Selling Restrictions: The notes will be offered only in the US and certain provinces of Canada. ISINs: US049463AD44, US049463AE27. S/D 12/10 (F) |
| IPT(s) | GUIDANCE | LAUNCHED | PRICED |
| +212.5 area | +195# | $500m 1/15/28 +195 | $500m 6.05% 1/15/28 99.981 6.053% +195 MW T+30 (TSY 4.125% 11/15/27) |
| +237.5 area | +220# | $500m 1/15/30 +220 | $500m 6.25% 1/15/30 99.869 6.278% +220 MW T+35 (TSY 4.125% 11/30/31) |
| BOOKS: | $1.4bln, $1.6bln |
| NIC(s): | +04, +06 |
| COMP(s): | ATWALD 5.811 11/01/27 $98.21 ~T+239 G+239 ATWALD 6.078 11/01/29 $97.87 ~T+251 G+251 |
.
| VOL | IPT/PX | XCVRD | NIC | TRADING | |
| (TODAY) 12/05 | 1,250 | -18 | 2.67 | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| WK ENDING 12/06/24 | 23,800 | -28 | 4.56 | 2.48 | 0.00 |
| WK ENDING 11/29/24 | 13,700 | -24 | 2.88 | 2.45 | 0.00 |
| WK ENDING 11/22/24 | 36,750 | -27 | 3.77 | 2.81 | -1.28 |
| WK ENDING 11/15/24 | 46,350 | -27 | 3.36 | 1.21 | 0.17 |
| WK ENDING 11/08/24 | 1,900 | -22 | 2.82 | -1.33 | 0.00 |
| WK ENDING 11/01/24 | 27,450 | -24 | 2.80 | 2.69 | 0.11 |
| WK ENDING 10/18/24 | 12,100 | -29 | 3.06 | 2.67 | -1.62 |
| WK ENDING 10/18/24 | 26,300 | -26 | 2.39 | 0.00 | -2.06 |
| WK ENDING 10/11/24 | 16,050 | -26 | 2.40 | 2.13 | -4.11 |
| WK ENDING 10/04/24 | 15,450 | -29 | 4.51 | 0.05 | -5.86 |
| WK ENDING 09/27/24 | 37,000 | -28 | 3.39 | 1.28 | -1.26 |
| WK ENDING 09/20/24 | 14,400 | -29 | 4.79 | 2.76 | -4.47 |
| WK ENDING 09/13/24 | 38,225 | -26 | 3.24 | 4.40 | -1.64 |
| WK ENDING 09/06/24 | 80,575 | -30 | 3.71 | 2.48 | -0.57 |
| WK ENDING 08/30/24 | 1,550 | -53 | 6.40 | 12.00 | -13.50 |
| WK ENDING 08/23/24 | 22,650 | -27 | 3.99 | 5.04 | -2.96 |
| WK ENDING 08/16/24 | 29,000 | -30 | 4.60 | 1.59 | -3.77 |
| WK ENDING 08/09/24 | 44,970 | -31 | 5.04 | 4.73 | -3.02 |
| WK ENDING 08/02/24 | 31,125 | -23 | 2.97 | 3.67 | 4.89 |
| YTD "ZERO DAYS" | 23 | 2023 / 32 | |||
| YTD FRNS DROPPED | 20 | 2023 / 39 | |||
| 24-Dec | 23,800 | -28.03 | 4.56 | 2.48 | 0.00 |
| 24-Nov | 98,700 | -26.51 | 3.47 | 1.92 | -0.44 |
| 24-Oct | 95,000 | -26.06 | 3.11 | 1.75 | -2.32 |
| 24-Sep | 172,550 | -26.08 | 2.11 | 2.41 | -1.22 |
| 24-Aug | 106,995 | -29.35 | 4.50 | 4.13 | -2.85 |
| 24-Jul | 125,504 | -26.26 | 4.80 | 2.47 | -2.96 |
| 24-Jun | 102,675 | -24.60 | 3.28 | 4.08 | 0.70 |
| 24-May | 136,150 | -29.89 | 3.51 | 1.93 | -0.84 |
| 24-Apr | 106,680 | -23.93 | 4.07 | 1.65 | -1.10 |
| 24-Mar | 142,909 | -25.00 | 3.82 | 1.46 | 0.59 |
| 24-Feb | 199,425 | -26.51 | 3.93 | 1.89 | -1.18 |
| 24-Jan | 195,620 | -25.66 | 3.73 | 2.70 | -2.20 |
| 23-Dec | 24,025 | -23.94 | 3.04 | 5.59 | -2.90 |
| VOL | IPT/PX | XCVRD | NIC | TRADING | |
| 2024 YTD | 1,506,008 | -26.92 | 3.67 | 2.52 | -1.42 |
| 2023 YTD | 1,206,505 | -24.20 | 3.66 | 6.74 | -3.40 |
| 24 VS '23 (% DIF) | -2.72 | 0.01 | -4.22 | 1.98 | |
| DEC | NOV VOL | LOW EST | AVE EST | HI EST | DIF (+/-) |
| 2024 | 23,800 | 30,000 | 32,500 | 35,000 | -8,700 |
| 2024 | 2024 YTD | LOW EST | AVE EST | HI EST | DIF (+/-) |
| YTD | 1,506,008 | 231,008 |
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