[THE ENDGAME] : "You Never Give Me Your Money"

That’s what President Trump is expected to say to the world this afternoon when he announces his wide sweeping tariffs which have been holding the financial markets, including the high-grade new issue market, hostage for days now. But he’s expected to turn the Beatles record over to the B-side and play “I Me Mine,” though that wasn’t actually the real B-side, when he announces the imposition of reciprocal tariffs.

Some expected none. Others expected two. What we got was one. With the entire market on the edge of their seats as we await (hopefully) some clarity on the present administration’s proposed tariffs, Holcim Finance US was the only issuer to tap the market today, raising $3.4bln via a 4-pt deal to fund its spin-off of Amrize Ltd. That brought ex-SSA issuance for the week, week that was supposed to yield, on average, $25bln, to $6bln with initial jobless claims (226k) and the March jobs report (140k) still ahead. In the run-up to these two pertinent pieces of data, the latest ADP jobs report showed that the private sector added 155k last month, better than expectations (120k), and an increase of 71k from the previous month.

There might have only been one deal priced today, but investors took kindly to it. The deal contracted 25bp from IPT/PX, while building a final book of $14.25bln, or 4.06x covered, although with no comparable outstanding HOLNSW issues, it was not possible to calculate an accurate NIC.

Slightly better-than-expected reads on factory orders (0.6% vs 0.5%) and durable goods orders (1.0% vs 0.9%) gave a boost to the three major averages despite the unknown surrounding this afternoon’s tariff announcement. After another volatile day on the Street yesterday - the Dow was down as much as 400 points, then up as much as 200, only to close 12 points lower, the index closed 235 points in the green moments before the announcement, The S&P500 (+0.67%) and the Nasdaq (+0.87%) also closed higher.

The Nasdaq’s gain was propelled by a 6.6% gain in the share price of Tesla on reports that Elon Musk may soon be relinquishing his post at the DOGE, which would allow him to concentrate on his businesses. This really should not have come as a surprise since Musk is designated as a Special Government Employee (SGE) and by law appointed to perform duties not to exceed 130 days (out of 365), which expires at the end of May. This came after Tesla reported a 13% drop from last year in Q1 deliveries.

As my colleague John Creegan pointed out earlier today, we have been relegated to algorithm versus algorithm trading ahead of the announcement, with Asia getting the first crack at trading the new world economic order, or lack of one, whichever way the wind blows in the rose garden this afternoon.

However, the stock market’s good fortune was the Treasury market’s misfortune as yields rose for the first time in four sessions. The benchmark 10yr note, which closed at 4.17%, a level not seen since last December, saw its yield jump 3bp to close at 4.20%. Meanwhile the long bond traded 2bp higher to 4.57%, while the 2yr note saw its yield pop 4bp to close at 3.91%.

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