Things That Stick Out: Wednesday Morning Meeting

Don’t expect much visibility today with the president’s Rose Garden announcement on tariffs not scheduled until after most markets close at 4 pm Eastern.

The press secretary answers questions at 11:30 am, so perhaps something will drop then.

The only thing resembling a consensus opinion that we can determine is a general expectation that many of these tariffs won’t stick. Time will tell.

In the meantime, the latest Atlanta Fed GDP projection for Q1 dropped late yesterday to a fresh low of minus 3.7% (!), a massive swing from +3.9% just two months ago that almost defies believability.

Even the doomers think the number is garbage, but as we noted Tuesday, the distinct breakdown in front-end rates implies a material slowdown in economic growth is likely underway. See: Things That Stick Out: Signal vs. Noise

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