Main Conference Day Three - GMT (Greenwich Mean Time, GMTZ)
Understanding the relationship between expectation and price is central to applications of mathematical finance, including algorithmic trading, derivative pricing and hedging, and the modelling of margin and capital. In this presentation, the link is established via dynamic entropic risk optimisation, which is promoted for its convenient integration into established pricing methodologies.
- Paul McCloud - Head of Global Fixed Income Quantitative Research, Nomura
Since the advent of SOFR as the default dollar interest rate benchmark, some of the most liquid options are mid-curve (SR3) SOFR options. These are American options on quarterly futures contracts whose expiry date is situated somewhere between the present date and the start of the futures contract fixing period. We base our calculation on a short-rate model we introduced at previous QuantMinds conferences to calculate SOFR caplet prices and conditional prices of futures contracts, incorporating smile and skew effects as an asymptotic adjustment. We extend this work to allow analytic pricing of mid-curve SOFR options. The formulae we present allow straightforward fitting of the model to mid-curve option prices using nothing more than simple quadratures.
- Colin Turfus - Researcher, Independent
- Aurelio Romero-Bermudez - Senior Quantitative Analyst, ING
We consider possibly non-Markovian local stochastic volatility (LSV) models and show that, by applying a filtering-type conditioning, one can recover an underlying Markovian structure. The resulting conditional dynamics naturally lead to rough partial differential equations (RPDEs) via a Feynman–Kac-type representation. These RPDEs provide a new proxy for the leverage function—typically accessible only through particle-based simulation methods—offering new insights and computational advantages for modelling and calibration.
- Peter Friz - Professor of Mathematics, TU Berlin, Weierstraß-Institut Berlin
- Davide Venturelli - Associate Director - Quantum Computing & Research Scientist, USRA
Where are we now? Where are we headed? What are the current practical applications?
How do we expect quantum ML to play a sharper role in finance that modern ML?
Although recent advances have made it feasible to estimate dynamic covariance matrices in high dimensions, portfolio managers face significant model risk when selecting a single forecast approach. We propose several forecast combination methods to mitigate model uncertainty and the risk of relative underperformance. These include distance-based approaches that penalize models producing forecasts that diverge excessively from others, as well as two optimization-based methods, which balance variance reduction with portfolio stability relative to individual models. Using daily U.S. stock data from 1980 to 2022, we evaluate ten individual covariance forecasting models and several combination strategies, constructing long-only minimum variance portfolios for universes of up to 1000 stocks. Forecast combinations--particularly simple ones--reduce model risk and deliver realized volatility close to the best individual models. However, optimization-based combinations often introduce additional turnover, potentially offsetting their benefits after transaction costs. Our results highlight the trade-off between improved risk forecasts and higher turnover, suggesting turnover-aware forecast combination as a direction for future research.
- Alexandre Rubesam - Associate Professor of Finance, IÉSEG School of Management
We reveal a geometric structure underlying both hedging and investment products. The structure follows from a simple formula expressing investment risks in terms of returns. This informs optimal product designs. Optimal pure hedging (including cost-optimal products) and hybrid hedging (where a partial hedge is built into an optimal investment product) are considered. Duality between hedging and investment is demonstrated with applications to optimal risk recycling. A geometric interpretation of rationality is presented.
- Andrei Soklakov - APAC Head of Prime and Delta One Quantitative Analytics, Citi
Large Language Models (LLMs) are shifting from novelty to necessity in fundamental research. I will dissect practical architectures that couple finance‑specific RAG with guard‑railed prompting to turn LLMs into reliable “junior analysts.” Real‑world case studies show 40–60 % time savings in transcript review, consensus modelling, and sector‑theme scouting. Attendees will learn how to structure unstructured data pipelines, quantify hallucination risk, and meet stringent record‑keeping requirements under SEC and ESMA rules. The session concludes with a roadmap for integrating LLM insights into existing portfolio construction and risk systems.
- David Mascio - Clinical Associate Professor, University of Florida
This is actually an increasingly acute issue since the COVID market crash, where the hedging of large quantities of short term Equity options, sold by banks to the retail market, has had a large and paradoxical impact on the equity market itself, with the consequence of reinforcing any market drawdowns. This phenomenon was before COVID limited to a few albeit recurrent market crashes and ONLY wholesale market, which was actually the focus of my Ph. D (2006) and academic and practitioners papers (2012,2016,2017,2019) and presentations of previous business and academic conferences (QuantMinds 2016, and award of the Best investment presentation at the US Society of Actuary Conference in 2018).
- Aymeric Kalife - Associate Professor, Paris Dauphine University
Most counterparties do not have traded CDS instruments. This poses a challenge for calculating CVA which relies on risk-neutral default probabilities. Here we present a new model for the estimation of credit spreads using equity market data. In contrast to traditional equity-credit models, we take an empirical approach in order to determine a simple functional relationship that can be used in practice for CVA risk management. We find that our approach out-performs models that rely solely on credit data as well as alternative equity-credit models in the literature.
- Matthias Arnsdorf - Global Head of Counterparty Credit & Market Risk Modelling, JP Morgan Chase
- Daniel Mayenberger - Head of Quants Markets Solutions – Digital Products, J.P. Morgan
Building on the celebrated Bergomi--Guyon expansion, we derive next-to-leading order expansions in the volatility-of-volatility parameter for the Skew-Stickiness Ratio, an indicator of implied volatility dynamics, within a general class of forward variance models, thus pursuing the seminal work of Bergomi on explicit approximation formulas for the SSR. We demonstrate the accuracy of these expansions using parameters calibrated to the SPX market across several models, including the two-factor Bergomi, rough Bergomi, Heston, and rough Heston models. This is joint work with Jules Delemotte and Stefano De Marco.
- Florian Bourgey - Quantitative Researcher, Bloomberg LP
- Julien Hok - Quantitative Analysis, Investec Bank
- Gbenga Ibikunle - Professor and Chair of Finance, University of Edinburgh
Bridging signals with real fills
- Luitgard Veraart - Professor, London School of Economics and Political Science
- Tasche model
- Stochastic variance approach
- LGD driver model
- Calibration strategy
- Marco Bianchetti - Head of IMA Market Risk, Market and Financial Risk Management, Intesa Sanpaolo
- Luca Lamorte - Expert Risk Manager, Market And Counterparty Risk IMA Methodologies, Market and Financial Risk Management, Intesa Sanpaolo
- Marcus Wunsch - Senior Lecturer, ZHAW School of Management and Law
- The Quintic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) model: a new, tractable, and production-friendly stochastic volatility model
- Explicit expressions for the VIX
- Characteristic functions of the log spot and the affine structure
- Fitting the joint SPX/VIX volatility surface across time
- Consistent modelling of spot/vol dynamics via SSR (skew stikiness ratio)
Based on joint work with Eduardo Abi Jaber (Ecole Polytechnique), Xuyang Lin (Ecole Polytechnique), and Camille Illand (AXA Investment Managers).
- Shaun Li - Quantitative Strategist, Morgan Stanley
- Stefano De Marco - Professor, Ecole Polytechnique
Balancing beta drift and exposure
From tight spreads to tail risk
Forward MtM (FMtM) Pricers are crucial whenever we need to evaluate a future MtM inside a simulated market for the purpose of computing a final t0 price. For instance, XVA pricing has relied on either analytical pricers for simple payoffs or regression pricers for more complicated ones. Evaluating the performance of these pricers is of utmost importance whenever the final t0 price has a heavy dependence on the distribution of FMtMs. To that end, we propose a framework based on Monte Carlo Branching Simulation to compute the Squared Error between an FMtM that we would like to assess, and the true reference FMtM which we don’t necessarily know. The Squared Error has the advantage of accounting for differences across the entire distribution of FMtMs. It can be used both as a selection criteria from a pool of available FMtM pricers, and as a tool to measure the performance of a single FMtM pricer. While it is one of the best ways to achieve that, we recognize that in some applications such as XVA this could be too strict as only the average positive part of FMtMs is needed. We thus propose a moment based approach also using Branching Simulation to evaluate the ability of an FMtM pricer to accurately calculate the average of a function of FMtMs under certain conditions. This effectively loosens the constrains of testing the entire FMtM distribution via the Squared Error.
As a numerical application, we use Regression Pricers in the context of XVA.
- Anas Bakkali - Vice President, XVA Quantitative Analytics, NatWest
Global regulatory factors and considerations for credit risk modelling
When models learn hedge slippage