Workshop: Sugar & Ethanol AsiaTuesday, 15 September 2026

The global sugar market since 1970 is best understood as a stocks‑and‑shocks system with a relatively small “free‑market” margin: modest changes in the global balance (production vs use) can generate very large world‑price moves when inventories tighten, weather shocks cluster, or policy regimes abruptly alter export availability. Causally, the most important structural drivers since the 1970s are: (i) the sugar–energy nexus created by Brazil’s ethanol programme (created in 1975) and blending mandates, which tie cane allocation and exportable sugar supply to oil‑linked fuel economics; (ii) persistent policy insulation in major markets (tariff‑rate quotas, quotas, administered cane prices, export bans/quotas); (iii) progressively stronger multilateral disciplines (notably WTO rulings against EU export subsidies); (iv) macro‑financial shocks (1980s debt crisis, 2008–09 GFC) that tightened trade finance and investment; (v) technology (mechanisation, improved varieties, processing efficiency, and logistics), and (vi) demand‑side shifts via sweetener substitution and health policy.