THE OUTLOOK FOR THE CANADIAN AND GLOBAL ECONOMIES
Employment, GDP growth and travel are on the rise, but so are interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Some see significant opportunities in financial markets and crypto currencies, while others feel like they are falling behind faster than ever. Find out which trends and data points you should be watching and learn how the Canadian and global economies will fare in 2022 and beyond.
- Benjamin Tal - Managing Director & Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC
SESSION A1 - RETAIL MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENTS AND REDEVELOPMENTS: WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS TYPE OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE AS WE EXIT THE PANDEMIC?
The retail sector has been experiencing issues and challenges for years, and the pandemic only served to intensify these challenges while also introducing new ones, however, many challenges are also opportunities. The service sector is poised to see a remarkable surge in demand in the second half of 2022, and new concept stores and brands continue to enter the Canadian market taking up new real estate as they look to reinvent what a traditional retail experience looks like. How have the different retail asset types performed, and where is this property class heading now? How will brick and mortar co-exist with e-commerce going forward? Are intensification and diversification redevelopment opportunities of existing retail properties the only way forward? This discussion will examine a range of major issues and trends that both landlords, retailers and developers have been dealing with and various strategic responses.
- Elie Newman - Principal, BNKC Architects Inc.
- Lina Al-Dajani - Senior Associate, SvN Architects
- John Crombie - Executive Managing Director, Retail Services, Cushman & Wakefield
- Toby Wu - Senior Vice President, Development, QuadReal
SESSION A2 - THE INDUSTRIAL MARKET HAS OUTPERFORMED ALL OTHER SECTORS: HOW ARE LAND AVAILABILITY, DEVELOPMENT COSTS, MARKET RENTS AND INNOVATION IMPACTING THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS SECTOR?
The industrial market across Canada was performing well for landlords before the pandemic, and supercharged demand for e-commerce fulfillment space and warehouse space to accommodate a switch from just-in-time (JIT) to just-in-case supply chain management has only served to intensify demand, development and rent growth. Furthermore, demand from non-traditional industrial space and land users, such as self-storage and data centres, is compounding the situation. Due to this increased demand for space and land for development, how dire is the industrial land shortage now? Will developers continue to look for opportunities farther afield, or will we see more redevelopment/conversion plays of other types of real estate into industrial projects? Which of these market dynamics and demand drivers are here to stay?
- John Scioli - Research Manager, Strategy & Market Intelligence, Panattoni Development Company
- Nick Gaganiaras - Director, Supply Chain Solutions & Engineering, National Logistics Services Inc.
- Andrew Konev - Senior Vice President, Development, Fengate
- Bryan Reid - Executive Director, MSCI Inc.
- Ben Sykes - Real Estate Broker & Associate, Avison Young
SESSION A3 - HOUSING AFFORDABILITY: WHAT STEPS ARE BEING TAKEN TO TACKLE AFFORDABILITY AND HOW DO WE ENCOURAGE A SOLUTION?
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) considers housing to be affordable if a household spends 30% or less of their pre-tax income on ‘adequate’ shelter. Households outside of this threshold are theoretically in need of affordable housing (not social housing), and those households that spend 50% or more on shelter are in severe need. According to the RBC Housing Affordability Measures the average Canadian household would need to spend 47.5% of median household income on housing costs, at levels not seen since 1990. With Canada experiencing an affordability crisis, are government policies helping or hindering the development of more housing? Is ‘Inclusionary Zoning’ and densifying the ‘Yellowbelt’ the answer, and where have we seen successful implementation of this? How can we depoliticize the approval process? Where have we seen the successful implementation of Inclusionary Zoning?
- Randy Gladman - Senior Vice President, Development Advisory, Colliers
- Andrew Garrett - Senior Principal, Real Estate, IMCO Investments
- Sherry Larjani - President, Spotlight Development Inc.
- Leor Margulies - Partner, Robins Appleby
- Salima Rawji - Senior Vice President, Development, CreateTO
SESSION B1 - MULTI-RESIDENTIAL APARTMENTS: HOW HAS THE MARKET PERFORMED THROUGHOUT THE PANDEMIC? WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR DEMAND AND TENANT PREFERENCES?
The multifamily sector saw vacancy rates increase at the start of the pandemic as many tenants either doubled up or moved in with family, with the impact direr in downtowns as there was no perceived benefit to paying a downtown rent premium. Once lockdowns eased, the service sector job market began to thaw, post-secondary students started returning to classes, and the prospect of returning to the office was becoming more imminent, demand for apartments, particularly downtown, began to increase again. Will the pandemic have a more permanent impact on tenant preferences? Is proximity to downtowns and public transit as important now as it was pre-pandemic? With tenants spending more time in their apartments, how have landlords managed increases in wear and tear and other costs? How will housing affordability impact multi-family demand and rents going forward, and will we see a surge in life-long renters in Canada?
- David Bloomstone - Managing Director, Investment Banking Real Estate Group & Head of Multi-Residential Property Brokerage, TD Securities
- Richard Aubry - Architect, Vice President, Design, Development & Construction, Redwood Properties
- Jonah Belkin - Partner & Managing Director, Peakhill Equity Partners
- Carl Gomez - Chief Economist & Head of Market Analytics, CoStar Group
- Jonathan King - Principal, BNKC Architects Inc.
SESSION C1 - CONDOS AND SINGLE-FAMILY DEVELOPMENT: FUTURE DEMAND TRENDS IN THE HOME BUILDING MARKET
As employees shifted to working from home during the pandemic, the way we use our homes shifted and the amount of space we need/want increased dramatically. As a result, residential markets in the suburbs and secondary markets saw a significant increase in demand and pricing. Is this a permanent shift, or does the return to the office, albeit in a hybrid fashion, mean that this trend has run its course? Despite the desire for more space, will buyers continue to sacrifice a longer commute for it? Furthermore, given the affordability crisis and rising interest rates, will new buyers be able to afford single-family detached homes, or will demand shift more towards condominiums, and what types of condominium, features and amenities are in highest demand? How does this vary geographically (downtowns vs suburbs vs secondary markets)?
- Kalliopi Karkas - Vice President, RioCan Living
- Andrew Brethour - Executive Chairman, PMA Brethour
- Matthew Brown - Director, Product Development, Minto Communities - Canada
- Gavin Cheung - Managing Partner & President, CentreCourt
- Mara Samardzic - Vice President, Land Development, Stanford Homes