In a year shaped by geopolitical tensions, SuperReturn Global Infrastructure hosts Charles Myers, Chairman of Signum Global Advisors, to discuss the profound link between the upcoming US presidential election and global infrastructure strategies. With Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee following President Biden’s withdrawal, Myers explores how the election’s outcome will influence America’s global role. Against the backdrop of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the US election could set new directions for infrastructure investment and international policy, underscoring the election’s far-reaching impact.
Understanding geopolitical risk has never been more important. In 2024 alone, nearly half of the world’s population has, or will, cast a vote in a regional or national election. Two conflicts – in the Middle East and in Ukraine – dominate headlines and draw the focus of policymakers and market participants alike. And, against this backdrop, the leading candidates in the US presidential election present starkly contrasting plans for US democracy and global leadership.
In the aftermath of July’s dramatic events – President Biden’s withdrawal and Vice President Kamala Harris’ accession to the Democratic nomination – Signum (and I) believes that the presidential race is Harris’ to lose. In addition to Harris’ polling surge, far outpacing Biden’s performance and pulling slightly ahead of former president Donald Trump, her campaign benefits from a number of structural advantages, including: Democratic voter enthusiasm writ-large, a higher turnout ‘ceiling’ than Trump’s and an issue (women’s reproductive rights) at the forefront of voters’ minds and on the ballot explicitly in at least nine states, including two swing states (Arizona & Nevada).
A Harris 1.0 presidency, unlike a Trump 2.0 administration, would not prompt dramatic changes to US governance at home or standing abroad. However, Harris’ foreign policy is likely to prove distinct from the Biden administration in that it will be, at the margins: less supportive of Israel (and more forceful in pushing for a ceasefire) and more supportive of Ukraine (if not in funding, in the softening of military ‘red lines’). And while Harris’ stance toward China remains relatively undefined, there is little room for improvement in the US-China relationship regardless of the outcome of November’s election.
The outcome of the 2024 US election will have a profound impact on global infrastructure investment. As political landscapes shift and international conflicts evolve, the next administration will shape not only America's role in global governance but also the future of infrastructure projects worldwide. Whether through policy decisions that drive international cooperation or funding priorities that influence infrastructure growth, the election’s influence will extend far beyond national borders, affecting the global economy and long-term investment strategies.
