Africa’s mineral wealth creates investment opportunities extending far beyond extraction. Ahead of SuperReturn Africa, Bowale Odumade Adeoye, Founder & CEO of SeedTree Capital, examines where private capital can create value across the power, water, transport, logistics and processing infrastructure that mines depend on and what it takes to make these projects bankable.

Where is the opportunity beyond the mine?

I see two opportunities.

The first is the infrastructure that mines need: power, water, transport and logistics. In Zambia, for example, mining consumes about half of the country’s electricity. On logistics, nearly 40% of Africa’s key mineral producers are landlocked, so transport costs to export ports can undermine competitiveness.

The second is processing. Much of Africa’s mineral output leaves in raw or semi-processed form, so there is room to capture more of the processing value locally. Processing near the mine can also reduce freight costs.

Contracted revenues make these assets attractive, but a power plant or processing facility serving a single mine remains exposed to that mine’s performance. One serving several mines and industrial users can spread that risk and lower costs.

One serving several mines and industrial users can spread that risk and lower costs.
Bowale Odumade Adeoye, Founder & CEO, SeedTree Capital

Integrating investments and sharing infrastructure across mining clusters could reduce mines’ unit production costs by about 20%.

What stops promising projects from reaching financial close?

The work required to prepare a project for investment is often underestimated. About 80% of African infrastructure projects fail at the feasibility and business-plan stage, and fewer than 10% reach financial close.

Projects need to be prepared around the questions investors ask: who will pay, whether revenues can support the financing and how risks will be managed under realistic downside scenarios.

Demand and cost assumptions should be tested before a project’s size and financing are fixed. Regulators, communities and customers need to be involved early enough to shape the design. Risks should be allocated to the parties best able to manage or bear them, with guarantees or blended finance used where necessary.

Bankability isn’t proven at the end; it’s designed from the beginning.
Bowale Odumade Adeoye, Founder & CEO, SeedTree Capital

Read more about building bankable infrastructure projects.

When does a mining customer make a power project bankable?

A mine provides bankable demand when investors can be confident it will keep paying, even when production or prices fall.

I would start with the minimum payment: what must the mine pay if it uses less power, provided the generator meets its obligations? The power purchase agreement should cover the debt tenor, and the mine’s remaining economic life should comfortably exceed it.

I would also examine tariff adjustments for exchange rates and costs, payment obligations in the event of force majeure, early termination terms, and the existence of a payment guarantee and the guarantor’s creditworthiness.

The mine should generally carry demand risk through its payment commitments. If investors accept some demand risk, that needs to be reflected in the returns and financing structure.

Is geopolitical interest translating into better investment opportunities?

Yes, particularly for strategic assets. Government-backed institutions are providing equity, convertible instruments and loans to African mineral projects as countries seek more secure supplies.

For investors, the test is what changes commercially: committed capital, longer tenor, cheaper funding, binding offtake or protection against a risk that previously blocked financing.

For investors, the test is what changes commercially.
Bowale Odumade Adeoye, Founder & CEO, SeedTree Capital

When does local processing make commercial sense?

Proximity to minerals helps, but a plant must meet buyers’ specifications and deliver attractive returns throughout the commodity cycle.

That requires reliable feedstock, competitive power costs, sufficient scale, proven technology and access to customers. The bar is high: refining projects outside the countries that currently dominate the industry can cost 20% to more than 150% more to build, with operating costs averaging about 50% higher.

Policy support can narrow that cost gap, but investors still need a credible path to competitive production.

Backing power and logistics first may be the stronger investment when unreliable electricity or high transport costs prevent an otherwise viable processing plant from competing. Serving existing mines and industrial users can provide contracted revenue while making future processing more competitive.

The strongest sequence is one in which each investment is commercially viable in its own right and improves the economics of the next.

The strongest sequence is one in which each investment is commercially viable in its own right and improves the economics of the next.
Bowale Odumade Adeoye, Founder & CEO, SeedTree Capital

What would bring more African institutional capital into infrastructure?

Pension allocations to alternative assets, including infrastructure funds, remain well below permitted limits in several markets.

African pension funds and insurers hold long-term, local-currency savings, but many have limited appetite or regulatory room for construction risk. Investments must be structured around that constraint.

The structures that help are familiar: refinancing planned from the outset so domestic investors enter once operations are established, local-currency credit enhancement and pooled vehicles with experienced managers.

Building the infrastructure around Africa’s mineral opportunity

For investors, the opportunity extends beyond mineral reserves to the power, logistics and processing that make those reserves commercially viable.

Capturing that opportunity requires projects prepared around credible demand, risks allocated to those best able to bear them and financing suited to each stage of development. Done well, these investments can serve mines today while supporting a broader industrial base over time.

Want to hear more? SuperReturn Africa takes place from 1–3 December 2026 at The Westin in Cape Town. Join Bowale and other private capital leaders for further discussion on infrastructure, critical minerals and investment opportunities across Africa.