Ahead of SuperReturn Asia, some of the region’s most closely watched private markets are entering very different phases. Since the last edition of SuperReturn LP Insights: Asia [1], Japan’s success has brought greater competition, India’s capital ecosystem has continued to mature, China’s recovery has become harder to ignore and Southeast Asia is demanding greater selectivity. We look at what has changed across five key markets – and what those shifts mean for LP allocation, manager selection and portfolio construction.

Across the region, fundraising remains challenging. Asia-Pacific-focused funds raised $58 billion in 2025, a 12-year low, according to Bain, even as individual markets followed very different trajectories [12].

India: Domestic capital is changing the liquidity story

One of the most striking observations from last year came from Raj Pai, GEF Capital Partners.

Domestic capital has driven 90% of India’s IPO story.
Raj Pai, Founder and Managing Partner, GEF Capital Partners

The significance goes beyond IPOs. A deeper domestic investor base can support fundraising, public-market liquidity and a more self-sustaining private markets ecosystem.

India’s PE exit value reached approximately $34 billion in 2025, up 3%, according to Bain. Public markets remained the largest exit channel, but managers also made greater use of strategic sales, buybacks and partial exits [3]. Domestic and global fundraising pools continued to expand.

At the same time, LP expectations are rising. Bain says investors are placing greater emphasis on track record, distributions and execution capability as competition for capital increases. That feels like an important marker of maturity. India is moving beyond proving that there is an opportunity. Managers increasingly have to prove that they can capture it consistently.

Japan: The opportunity everyone has noticed

Few calls from last year have aged as well as the bullish case for Japan. Jun Tsusaka, CEO and CIO of NSSK, argued that private equity deal flow was expanding faster than the existing market could easily absorb, with succession, corporate transformation and M&A all creating opportunities.

The latest data strengthens the case. Japanese private equity deal value reached ¥4.8 trillion in 2025, while exit value climbed to a record ¥2.4 trillion. Take-private transactions represented around half of total deal value, supported by continuing corporate governance reforms. Japan has now moved beyond being an attractive niche. Bain describes it as a core destination for global private capital. Success, however, has brought competition with it. More international and regional firms are entering the market, domestic managers are scaling and some competitive take-private transactions announced in 2025 involved premiums of 60–80% [4].

The opportunity is no longer a secret. The question is increasingly who can access it without paying away the return.

China: Is the contrarian case getting stronger?

China produced one of the most memorable calls from last year. Ed Grefenstette, President and CEO of The Dietrich Foundation, argued that years of capital withdrawal had created a market with surprisingly little competition:

It has arguably become the least crowded trade in the world
Ed Grefenstette, President and CEO of The Dietrich Foundation

There are now clearer signs of recovery. Greater China’s private equity exit value reached approximately $53 billion in 2025, its highest level since 2022, while deal value and volume increased for the second consecutive year [5]. Investment remained concentrated in areas including semiconductors, advanced technology and pharmaceuticals.

But the capital landscape is different from the one international investors knew several years ago. Deloitte found that domestic and state-affiliated investors played a larger role in 2025, while Bain notes that RMB-denominated capital has become increasingly important as US-dollar fundraising remains difficult.

The improved backdrop strengthens the contrarian case, but it does not make China straightforward. Local networks, sector expertise and an understanding of changing capital and exit markets remain central to investing there.

Indonesia: Growth needs governance

Indonesia’s structural appeal is easy to see: scale, demographics, entrepreneurship and a growing domestic economy.

But some of the strongest investor observations last year were not about growth at all. They were about what happens after the cheque is written.

You can only do so much due diligence. What matters more is the monitoring after you invest
Founding partner, venture capital firm

Investors described entrepreneurs looking for more than funding: professionalisation, governance and strategic support. That becomes especially relevant in a more demanding regional market.

Across Southeast Asia, PE deal value fell around 10% to approximately $14 billion in 2025, while exit value declined 32% [6]. Capital increasingly concentrated in higher-quality businesses with strong management teams, defensible positions and clearer exit pathways.

That is a regional picture, rather than an Indonesia-specific downturn. Indonesia still benefits from structural themes including China+1 manufacturing shifts, which Bain identifies as supporting industrial investment in both Indonesia and Vietnam.

The long-term opportunity remains. What looks less convincing is the case for passive capital. In a selective market, governance and operational involvement can be as important as getting the entry thesis right.

Australia: The value of “good boring”

Australia plays a very different role within an Asia-Pacific portfolio. Kunal Sood, Pantheon, described it as a developed-market anchor, offering return drivers that differ from faster-growing and more volatile parts of the region:

…the macro is quite boring sometimes, but in good boring in many ways.
Kunal Sood, Managing Director, Pantheon

That relative predictability is only part of the story. Australia’s established private equity market recorded A$13.6 billion in deals across 147 transactions in 2025, while Australia-focused private capital AUM stood at A$161 billion as of June 2025 [7].

Last year’s discussions also highlighted founder succession, public-to-private transactions and carve-outs as sources of opportunity – particularly in the mid-market. Australia may not offer the same demographic story as India or Indonesia, the reform story of Japan or the contrarian angle of China. That is partly its role. Not every allocation within an Asian portfolio needs to do the same job.

One region, no single playbook

Put these markets side by side and “Asia-Pacific” starts to look like an increasingly broad label. India is developing domestic depth. Japan is undergoing corporate transformation. China is recovering with a different capital base. Indonesia rewards active ownership and local knowledge. Australia offers mature-market diversification.

Deloitte’s 2026 regional analysis reaches a similar conclusion: Asia-Pacific’s major markets are following increasingly divergent trajectories rather than moving through one common private equity cycle [8].

For LPs, deciding to allocate to Asia is therefore only step one. Country selection, manager access, ownership model and local execution determine what that allocation actually means. That market-by-market view will be central to SuperReturn Asia, 28 September–1 October 2026 at Marina Bay Sands Convention Centre in Singapore.The programme includes a dedicated Country-Focused Summit covering Japan, Australia, South Korea and China, alongside wider discussions on capital allocation and private markets opportunities across the region.

References

[1] SuperReturn LP Insights: Asia.
[2] Bain & Company, Asia-Pacific Private Equity Report 2026.
[3] Bain & Company, India Private Equity Report 2026.
[4] Bain & Company, Japan Private Equity Report 2026.
[5] Bain & Company, Greater China Private Equity Report 2026.
[6] Bain & Company, Southeast Asia Private Equity Report 2026.
[7] Australian Investment Council, Australian Private Capital 2026 Yearbook.
[8] Deloitte, Asia Pacific Private Equity Almanac 2026